Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Duncan Wrigley
Only modest improvement in China's headline exports; imports rise in anticipation of stimulus impact; Japanese broad wages yet to turn around
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Chinese services sector ploughs ahead
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- April’s RMB343B PSL net repayment is probably related to the PBoC’s desire to cushion bond yields.
- The April Caixin services activity PMI barely slowed, a rosier picture than the drop in the official index.
- The Caixin index is tracking the service-sector output data better than the official index.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Korean manufacturers are highly bullish, despite mounting cost pressures
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Korea’s April manufacturing PMI points to improving output and demand trends year-to-date.
- But burgeoning cost pressures are making firms cautious on hiring and inventory purchasing.
- The BoK is likely to worry about these cost pressures disrupting the slowing trend in consumer inflation.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Manufacturing output in rude health, though the PMIs provide contrasting readings for new orders
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's PMIs indicate manufacturing output surge, despite mixed demand readings; services activity suffers post-holiday dip
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Both China’s April PMIs agree that manufacturing output is going from strength to strength...
- ...But the official gauge shows demand fading slightly, while the Caixin indicates further robustness.
- It was announced at yesterday’s Politburo meeting the reform-oriented Third Plenum will be held in July.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Tokyo inflation slows due to implementation of free high school education and cooling food inflation
Duncan WrigleyChina+
The BoJ resists JPY market pressure in keeping the policy rate target range steady
Duncan WrigleyChina+
The BoJ holds the policy rate steady; Tokyo consumer inflation cools, thanks to education subsidies
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoJ held firm on its policy rate on Friday, defying market pressure on the JPY.
- Governor Ueda declined to adopt a more hawkish tone on the rate path, keeping the focus on inflation.
- April national inflation won’t slow as much as Tokyo inflation, hit by the start of free local schooling.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s structural problems, notably in the property sector, are limiting the efficacy of interest rate cuts.
- But varied public views on the management of bond yields hint at a broader internal policy debate.
- Labour-market issues are compounded by credit constraints for private firms, especially SMEs.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoJ is likely to keep the policy rate unchanged, as Japan hasn’t attained sustainable inflation yet.
- Broad wage growth is likely to lag strong pay rises at large employers, while consumption looks soft.
- But building pressure on JPY will probably force the Bank to strike a more hawkish tone on future rates.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The steep decline in China’s new residential sales eased only a tiny bit in March.
- Developer funding is still under severe pressure; the 6,000-project whitelist offers limited help, so far.
- China’s residential sector faces a grinding recovery, despite flickers of life in Shanghai’s luxury market.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s Q1 GDP growth picked up, thanks to robust industrial output and consumer services spending.
- But a marked fall in industrial capacity utilisation points to burgeoning oversupply issues...
- …Fiscal stimulus should boost demand to mitigate the oversupply, eventually; meanwhile, PPI deflation.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Chinese GDP beats expectations, despite an uneven recovery and looming oversupply issues
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The PBoC left the MLF rate unchanged yesterday, likely wary of currency pressure.
- Social financing growth slowed in March, due to soft domestic demand and lower bond issuance.
- Government-bond issuance is likely to pick up in Q2, the key plank of short-term growth support.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
The PBoC keeps the MLF rate on hold, despite slowing credit growth
Duncan WrigleyChina+
The PBoC keeps the MLF rate on hold, despite slowing credit growth
Duncan WrigleyChina+
