- In one line: Construction growth back with a bang.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Retail sales still went nowhere in Q1.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Weak private car sales suggest consumer caution.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Food disinflation offsets impact from electricity tariff rise.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Deficit narrows again, to three-year low.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Orders not rising in line with surveys; trade balance in goods rebounds
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: A grim April but retail sales should recover as the weather improves.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
April CPI stays unexpectedly within the BSP's target range
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- US - April’s payrolls likely mark the start of a shift to much weaker trend
- EUROZONE - Still three more SNB cuts this year, despite rising inflation in April
- UK - MPC Preview: set to signal more cuts than the market expects
- CHINA+ - China’s broadening services recovery will go only so far
- EM ASIA - Taiwan’s Q1 GDP as good as it’ll likely get in 2024
- LATAM - Mexico’s GDP slowing amid macro concerns and policy dilemma
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- CPI health insurance prices are set to slow sharply from April, thanks to methodological changes.
- Prices should flatline from April to September, but the 1½% trend in the PCE measure will continue.
- MBS data on mortgage applications likely nudged up last week, but from a very low base.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- GDP growth in Indonesia ticked up to 5.1% in Q1, from 5.0% in Q4, in line with the consensus…
- …But thanks largely to a big—and unsustainable—election-period jump in government expenditure.
- The Q4 inventories lift disappeared overnight, with exports still flailing, while capex softened noticeably.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- German factory orders fell again in March, as capital and intermediate goods demand faltered...
- ...Turnover data suggest production figures will be better than expected today, but still down.
- Retail sales confirm the EZ consumer was still show- ing little interest in goods in Q1; will this change?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect CPI inflation to fall to 2.1% in April, from 3.2% in March, matching the MPC’s forecast.
- Ofgem’s utility price-cap cut contributes about a third of that inflation fall, the rest is broad-based.
- Services inflation likely slowed to 5.4% in April, 0.1pp stronger than the MPC expects.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Banks are continuing to tighten credit availability for business and consumers.
- The real cost of bank loans to small businesses is approaching 8%; no wonder they are cutting costs.
- The lag between banks' willingness to extend consumer credit and lending flows is long; a slowdown lies ahead.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Our final forecast for Thailand’s Q1 GDP sees growth slowing to just 0.7%, from 1.7% in Q4…
- …The slowdown in consumption is the main drag, alongside the fading yearly lift from net trade.
- The six-month bout of CPI deflation ended in April, as food and transport inflation returned to the black.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China’s Q1 GDP grew solidly, thanks to vigorous manufacturing output and services growth.
- Services growth is broadening to business services, but the consumption recovery is relatively lacklustre.
- China will follow its own reform path at the Third Plenum, rather than adopting Western prescriptions.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The EZ unemployment rate held steady in March, staying at 6.5% for the fourth straight month.
- Employment growth likely slowed in Q1, in line with the surveys and advance national data...
- ...And will slow to Q3 at least, lifting the jobless rate as labour-force growth stays strong.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The April composite PMI signals 0.4% quarter-to-quarter growth, above the MPC’s 0.1% forecast.
- Rising new orders and buoyant business confidence suggest that solid growth will be maintained.
- Services inflation slowed according to the PMI, but input costs surged after April’s minimum-wage hike.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
