Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

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8 December 2023 Emerging Asia Monitor Thai Deflation Should End Soon, but Inflation Will be Trivial in 2024

Thailand’s brief spell of CPI deflation should end in January, despite November’s downside surprise.
We still believe average inflation will fall sharply in 2024, even if power tariffs shoot up next month.
Sales growth in the Philippines kicked off Q4 poorly, but the nascent and fragile recovery remains intact.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

8 December 2023 China+ Monitor China's Exports Bottom out, Supporting Jump in FX Reserves

November trade data show Chine se exports have flattened out in recent months.
Key commodity import volumes continue to grow, except crude oil, which abruptly fell in November.
Foreign reserves rose sharply in November, thanks to valuation effects and a larger trade surplus.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

8 December 2023 UK Monitor Risk to the MPC's Q4 Forecast

We think GDP rose by 0.1% month-to-month in October, despite disruption from Storm Babet.
The composite PMI points to a decline in activity, but we think it has been excessively weak recently.
Output in the health sector likely increased again, driven by a pick-up in Covid booster vaccinations.

Samuel TombsUK

8 December 2023 Eurozone Monitor

EZ GDP growth was stung by falling inventories in Q3, offsetting a rise in public and private spending.
The slowdown in investment is intensifying, but the outlook for household consumption is brightening.
We now think EZ GDP will rise by 0.5% this year, and next year too; no upward inflation pressures here.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Eurozone, October 2023

In one line: Disappointing.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Factory Orders, Germany, October 2023

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 December 2023 US Upward Revisions to GDI look more Likely than Cuts to GDP

The gap between the GDI and GDP numbers is unusually large by historic standards...
...Undercounting of interest payments means that big upward revisions to GDI are a good bet.
ISM services signals modest and steady growth, but hints at a hefty bounce in October payrolls.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

7 December 2023 US Monitor Credit Growth is Slowing but Signs of Stress are Still Limited

Higher rates and tighter lending standards are depressing credit and constraining spending…
…But the hit is modest, so far, and the deterioration in credit quality is not yet alarming.
Initial jobless claims are wild around Thanksgiving, but look for a further increase in continuing claims.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

7 December 2023 China+ Monitor China's Service Activity Trending Lower Amid Soft Sentiment

China’s services PMIs diverged in November, but this is probably a blip in a cooling trend this year.
The graduate jobs market is likely still weak, if slightly better than last year.
Consumer confidence has waned since the initial reopening surge in Q1.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

7 December 2023 LatAm Monitor A mixed end to Q3, but 2024 looks a bit better

Brazilian Real — Fundamentals supportive
Mexican Peso — All good here, at least in the near term
Argentinian Peso — Milei’s moment is here

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

7 December 2023 Eurozone Monitor Italy Still in the Doldrums Despite Upward Revision to Q3 GDP

Italian GDP increased in Q3 rather than flat-lined, as the advance release had suggested...
...It is still more likely to fall than rise in Q4, and we are lowering our forecasts for H1 2024.
BTPs are rallying, and we look for further gains; we see yields falling to just over 3% by mid 2024.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 December 2023 UK Monitor Official Labour Market Data to Preserve Q2 Rate-Cut Hopes

Employee numbers likely were broadly unchanged month-to-month in November.
PAYE figures and ONS survey data point to a further loss of upward momentum in wages in October...
...But rises in the Real Living Wage and public- sector pay likely supported growth temporarily

Samuel TombsUK