Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Sharp decline in inflation expectations is welcome news for the Fed.
US
In one line: A big decline; base effects in energy point to a snap-back in December.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Japan's revised Q3 GDP reveals weak private consumption demand
Nominal wage growth picked up in October
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- In one line: Still not showing any appetite for normalisation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
The RBI still isn’t showing any appetite for normalisation
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Consistent with unemployment rising more quickly than the MPC expects.
Samuel TombsUK
- Recent CPI inflation and wage data have undershot the MPC’s expectations...
- ...and it will judge that sterling’s appreciation will offset the boost to inflation from lower rate expectations.
- But Mr. Bailey has repeatedly pushed back against the fall in rate expectations; don’t expect a dovish tone yet.
Samuel TombsUK
- The ECB will keep rates and the pace of QT unchanged this week; all eyes on the new forecasts.
- We think the ECB will lower its 2024 inflation forecast by 0.5pp, to 2.7%, and we look for 2.0% in 2026.
- The consensus now expects the first ECB rate cut in June next year; we still believe March is a good bet.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Japan’s Q3 GDP growth was revise d down, largely due to a lower estimate for private consumption.
- Service exports surprisingly fell over the quarter, suggesting foreign tourism spending has peaked.
- Wage growth improved in October, partly thanks to bonuses; the BoJ is tracking the spring wage talks.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The RBI is still sounding cautiously hawkish, due to food inflation risk ; April is now the likely earliest cut .
- In our view, its CPI forecasts are too pessimistic, while its outlook on growth is overly optimistic.
- Beware, the number of unemployed workers in the Philippines has now risen for two straight quarters.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Inflation overshot expectations in Chile; food prices and tourist packages did the most damage.
- Underlying pressures remain under control, and the sluggish economic recovery will put a lid on inflation.
- BCCh will cut by 75bp next week, as price pressures are subdued, despite the ugly inflation headlines.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The most important number Friday was the steep drop in consumers’ inflation expectations…
- …The reported dip in the unemployment rate was much too small to be statistically significant.
- Growth in cyclically-sensitive payrolls is now quite slow, but it’s unlikely to roll over anytime soon.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- In one line: A sharp m/m increase, but the rapid downtrend will resume soon.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Core inflation continues to fall.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
No change to the benign picture.
US
In one line: Hit by falling inventories; productivity fell further.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- China’s FX reserve jump reflects reduced capital outflow pressure, as the dollar weakens and U.S. yields fall
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Confirming that output fell in each of the big four in October.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
