- India’s 7.3% advance estimate for 2023/24 GDP growth implies a consensus-beating Q4 and Q1...
- ...But the PMIs already point to a big expectations miss in Q4; at least core price pressures are fading.
- Base effects and vehicle sales play starring roles in Singapore’s retail sales in November.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
India’s PMIs for Q4, overall, point to sub-6% GDP growth
Singaporean consumer demand looks subdued, despite the November jump in sales growth
Deflation in Thailand deepens, but December should be the low
Philippine inflation returns to the target range, finally
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesian inflation should fall below BI’s new 2.5% target in Q1, with food base effects turning.
- Thai deflation surprisingly deepened in December, but this should be the low, as food will soon U-turn.
- Target-range inflation in the Philippines is finally here, making a mockery of the BSP’s hawkishness.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Vietnam’s scorching Q4 GDP print is no ‘mission accomplished’; the result is somewhat misleading.
- Sequential momentum appears to have peaked in Q3, and the Q4 jump in industry looks fragile.
- The second half of 2023 benefited hugely from the initial—and likely unrepeatable—bounce in exports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: The H2 rise in food inflation is finally over.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Entering 2024 with negative momentum.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- India’s tight job market poses a risk to our downbeat 2024 outlook, but the devil is in the details.
- Vietnam’s economy will grow the most this year, assuming the surge in NPLs doesn’t get in the way.
- Disruption to key global shipping routes risks hitting the nascent export recovery in developed ASEAN.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
INDIA’S ROSY GDP HEADLINES REMAIN A FARCE
- ...BOT FINALLY PAUSES, WHILE BSP’S HEAD IS M.I.A.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Bank Indonesia’s rebranded benchmark rate—the BI rate —was held at 6.00%, as universally expected.
- BI understandably urged caution on food inflation, but base effects here will soon give a helping hand.
- With the core still subdued, the headline should fall below BI’s new target in Q2, paving the way for cuts.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The slump in Indonesian export growth eased more in November, with the commodities hit still fading…
- …This dynamic is helping imports, too, masking the grow th slowdown in consumer and capital goods.
- The crash in Philippine exports in October isn’t as bad as it looks, while the import jump is deceptive.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: We told you not to panic about October’s record deficit; you’re welcome.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: The next move is a cut, and could come as early as Q1.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: The next move is a cut, and could come as early as Q1.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
The seven-month bout of WPI deflation in India comes to an end
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas left its target reverse repo rate at 6.50% this month, as expected.
- The Board’s statement still sounds very hawkish, but we think this facade is starting to crumble…
- …Governor Remolona has been MIA, and we see no belief behind their 4.2% inflation forecast for 2024.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Underlying the softer-than-expected November bounce in Indian inflation is fading food pressures…
- …We’re happy with our below-consensus 3.5% call for 2024, especially with core inflation still falling.
- We see no reason to celebrate IP growth leaping to a 16-month high in October; it’s just Diwali noise.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: The worst of the recent food price surge is over; Diwali calendar effects flatter October IP massively.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global