Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)

8 October 2024 China+ Monitor China's foreign reserves rise to their highest level since 2015

  • China’s FX reserves rose more than expected in September as the Fed started cutting interest rates.
  • Foreign equity flows have likely improved, as China announced support measures at end-September.
  • Looking ahead, a weaker dollar and further Fed cuts should bode well for China’s valuation effect.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

1 October 2024 China+ Monitor China's weak September surveys underscore the need for stimulus

  • China's manufacturing PMIs point to shrinking activity, while the service sector continues to slow.
  • Construction seems to be stabilising; we expect a stimulus impact soon, on faster bond issuance.
  • Measures announced should lift short-term growth, but expect more monetary and fiscal support in Q4.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

24 September 2024 China+ Monitor Korean early-September trade data point to resilient momentum

  • The sharp slowdown in unadjusted 20-day Korean export data masks the underlying strength.
  • China’s slowing growth and heightened geopolitics remain key risks to Korea’s export recovery.
  • We reiterate our call for an October BoK rate cut, or maybe November if financial stability worries persist.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

September 2024 - China+ Chartbook

  • -CHINA TOUGHING IT OUT, HELPED BY RESILIENT EXPORTS
  • - BOJ INSISTS ON ITS READINESS TO RAISE RATES
  • - BOK COULD DELAY RATE CUT, ON HOUSING DEBT WORRIES

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 10 September 2024

In one line: China's exports buoyed by strong BRICS and EU demand

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Exports, China, August

In one line: China's exports buoyed by strong BRICS and EU demand

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: FX Reserves, China, July

In one line: China’s foreign reserves climb in August amid weakening dollar and falling treasury yields

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

11 September 2024 China+ Monitor Chinese import demand sinks, reflecting torpid domestic demand

  • China’s exports surprised to the upside, thanks to a surge in EU and BRICS shipments and car demand.
  • Imports imploded, reflecting rapidly deteriorating domestic demand; more stimulus is needed.
  • Foreign exchange reserves rose in August due to a higher valuation effect on currency and bond assets.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Exports, Korea, August

In one line: Korea’s exports rebound on a WDA basis despite slowing headline growth in August.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Official Non-Mfg PMI, China, August

In one line: China’s services sector rebounds after July’s bad weather, while construction index continues to dive.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Official Mfg PMI, China, August

In one line: China's manufacturing sector hit by rapidly weakening demand in August

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 30 August 2024

In one line: Tokyo consumer inflation surprises on the upside, backing BoJ’s decision to hike.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 27 August 2024

Stagnant profit growth amid China's sluggish demand and ample capacity

China’s MLF rate was unchanged as expected

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: MLF, China, August

In one line: China’s MLF rate was unchanged as expected

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: National CPI, Japan, July

In one line: Japan's inflation remains steady in July as energy prices rebound and core-core inflation eases

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 23 August 2024

Japan's inflation remains steady in July as energy prices rebound and core-core inflation eases

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 22 August 2024

BoK holds rate steady on financial stability worries; Japan's flash PMIs indicate better growth momentum in August, especially in services

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Flash Manufacturing PMI, Japan, August

In one line: Japan’s manufacturing activity shrinks at a slower pace in August, thanks to improvement in output and employment

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: BoK Decision, Korea, August

In one line: The Bank of Korea is in no rush to cut rates, likely to start its easing cycle in Q4

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 21 August 2024

Korea’s 20-day export growth fueled by lumpy ship exports and renewed EU demand.

Japan’s July export growth boosted by semiconductors gains and mixed regional demand

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

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independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence