Seasonal effects aside, Singaporean consumer demand remains healthy
Outright deflation in Thailand should be over in a few months
The favourable January food price drag in the Philippines is unwinding partially
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Consumer demand in Singapore remains healthy, despite the Lunar New Year hit to Jan. retail sales.
- The rebound in Philippine food inflation won’t last, but it pushes back the likely first rate cut to June.
- Deflation in Thailand has finally turned a corner; expect to see a muted return to the black in Q2.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Singaporean inflation is likely to pick up in February but overall disinflationary path is intact
Malaysian core inflation continues to moderate in Janaury
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The sharp drop in Singaporean inflation, to 2.9% from 3.7%, comes as no surprise to us…
- … As a combination of friendly base effects, lower COE prices and rebates drags on the headline.
- Malaysian core disinflation is likely to continue as lab our-market tightness unwinds.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The MAS maintained the appreciative slope of its S$NEER policy band at its January meeting...
- ...As it reiterated the current elevated core inflation outlook, while downplaying growth concerns.
- We see the MAS digging in to rein in core inflation, maintaining the policy band for the rest of 2024.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Banking on the recovery in the electrical and electronics sector.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Banking on the recovery in the electrical and electronics sector.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BNM remained on hold at its January meeting, keeping its policy rate at 3.00%...
- ...Even though core and headline inflation are falling; significant uncertainty surrounds the outlook.
- The pace and strength of the recovery in export growth should determine the BNM’s next move .
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Singaporean inflation picked up unexpectedly in December to 3.7%, from 3.6% in November...
- ...As a rise in transport and services inflation offset the impact from continued food disinflation.
- With inflation uncomfortably high, while the growth outlook remains weak, the MAS is likely to hold.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
MAS likely to stay put next week as inflation inches up
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Inflation in Malaysia cooled last year, dropping to 2.5%, from 3.4% in 2022...
- ...Helped by fuel deflation in early 2023, while food disinflation gathered strength in Q4.
- The BNM is likely to stay put at tomorrow’s meeting, with inflation below its pre-pandemic average.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Weak external demand drags on Malaysian manufacturing in Q4
A particularly weak ending to 2023 for Malaysian exports
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Malaysian GDP growth surprised to the downside in 2023, hurt by a tough year for manufacturing...
- ...But a recovery within the sector is likely to power a broader upturn in economic activity this year.
- Export growth plummeted in December, as re-exports dragged on the headline.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Singaporean export growth in December falls on weak electronics
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Malaysian retail sales growth increased to 4.4% in November, from 3.9% in October...
- ...Supported by friendlier base effects and seasonal spending, which offset moderating price growth.
- We expect retail sales growth to stabilise around 5-to-6% this year, as employment growth wanes.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Jump in Singaporean GDP growth in Q4 was powered by a rebound in manufacturing
ASEAN entered 2024 with negative momentum
The H2 rise in Indonesian food inflation is finally over
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Q4 GDP growth in Singapore surprised to the upside, jumping to 2.8%, from 1.0% in Q3...
- ...Boosted by a rebound in the manufacturing sector and robust construction activity.
- We will look to upgrade our 2024 forecast of 1.7% if external demand continues to hold up in Q1.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A new post-pandemic low, but risks to the outlook from imported inflation increase.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
