- Italian industrial output fell in November, defying the otherwise decent trail of hard data for Q4.
- We are sticking to our call for a 0.2% slide in GDP, setting up a weak base for this year.
- Quarter-on-quarter GDP growth will rebound this year, but the recovery will be gradual and tepid.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Wage growth will still slow if the labour market remains tight.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Did net trade boost GDP in France as it likely did in Germany in Q4?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The small increase in Swiss inflation in December leaves it in line with the SNB’s target...
- ...Inflation will fall back soon, despite the VAT hike; we look for the Bank to cut its policy rate in March.
- EZ unemployment will rise, though only marginally; still-low joblessness need not deter ECB rate cuts.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Services sentiment pulled up the ESI at the end of 2023; Retail sales were still going nowhere in November.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Up again, pointing to upside for the PMI.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Jump in services sentiment leads the way; will it be sustained?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Not enough to convince us consumption rose in Q4.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- GDP is likely to rebound from Q1 next year, albeit slowly; consensus expects a quicker recovery.
- Inflation will fall more sharply than the consensus or ECB expects in H1, if we are correct on January…
- ...If so, the ECB will cut rates five times next year, starting in March, earlier than consensus expects.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Not as good as the headline would suggest.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- German consumer confidence is on the rise but risks to our consumption call remain to the downside.
- The EZ current account surplus climbed in October; the trend in the euro suggests it will decline soon.
- EZ construction started Q4 on a rough note, and all signs point to the struggle stretching into 2024.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Further increases likely over the coming months.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: The start of a more sustained climb?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: The start of a more sustained climb?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: German firms will be happy to say Goodbye to 2023!
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Still-strong growth in labour costs; net trade on track for a rise in Q4?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone