Pantheon Macroeconomics

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53 items tagged "imf":

Craig Botham

Craig Botham

Craig produces the China+ Service for Pantheon, covering China, Japan and Korea. He was previously Senior EM Economist at Schroders, with a particular focus on China and other BRICs, following stints as an economist at the U.K. financial regulator and the IMF.  Craig has a MSc in Economic History from LSE, a MSc in Economics from Birbeck, and an undergraduate degree in Economics from the University of Cambridge.

Gabriella Dickens

Gabriella Dickens

Gabriella joined Pantheon in 2021 weth several years' experience in independent macro research. Prior to joining Pantheon, she was a Global Economist at Capital Economics, with a particular focus on advanced economies; she also worked on a U.K. economy and housing market.

Melanie Debono

Melanie Debono

Melanie joined Pantheon in 2021 with nearly a decade's experience in independent economic research. She focuses on the Eurozone, with particular emphasis on Italy and Spain, and also covers Switzerland and SNB policy.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 07.01.22

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 07.01.22

Too early to say if Omicron will hinder catch-up growth in PH sales

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 01.12.21

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 01.12.21

A repeat of ASEAN's record PMI in October was never on the cards India's punchy PMIs for Q4 still signal a further slowdown in y/y growth More evidence that Indonesia's government is allowing prices to rise faster

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 03.11.21

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 03.11.21

Indian services are rebounding quickly, but so too are inflationary pressures

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 05.11.21

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 05.11.21

The Delta hit to consumption holds back Indonesia's recovery in Q3 Oil effects will outweigh cooling food inflation in the Philippines, sooner rather than later Imports of consumer goods in the Philippines recover fully from the Delta pinch

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 09.11.21

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 09.11.21

The Philippines' consumption-led bounce in Q3 is unsustainable Sales paint a less-impressive picture of the month-on-month momentum

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 10.11.21

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 10.11.21

Unfazed by the more than probable crash in Q3 GDP

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 15.11.21

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 15.11.21

Involuntary restocking salvages Thailand's Q3 China drives Indonesia's trade surplus to another record high The RBI can't afford to ignore WPI for much longer

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 16.11.21

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 16.11.21

Indonesian consumers entered Q4 with little momentum

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 18.11.21

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 18.11.21

Unchanged inflation forecasts say more than the BSP's unusually hawkish rhetoric BI remains unfazed by the big Chinese elephant in the room, and rightly so

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 29.11.21

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 29.11.21

Ignore the headline, Vietnamese trade is roaring back Q4 is shaping up to be extremely punchy for retail sales Disinflation probably will dominate in 2022

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 03.12.21

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 03.12.21

Don't bank too much on India's sturdy services PMI Food inflation in Thailand is reviving... fortunately for the BoT, oil prices are now going the other way

PM Datanote: U.S. ADP Employment, December

PM Datanote: U.S. ADP Employment, December

In one line: Strong, supporting the signal from the Homebase data.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 07.12.21

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 07.12.21

No real comfort for the BSP

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 01.11.21

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 01.11.21

Solid, but take India's October PMI with a pinch of salt Oil effects are seeping into Indonesia inflation, just

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 09.12.21

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 09.12.21

Catch-up growth in Filipino consumption is back on

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 10.12.21

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 10.12.21

Trade in the Philippines remains lacklustre

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 14.12.21

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 14.12.21

Sticky core is the main story in India's WPI shock

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 15.12.21

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 15.12.21

Too soon to call time on Chinese demand for Indonesian exports

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 16.12.21

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 16.12.21

The BSP and BI barely flinch in the face of an increasingly hawkish Fed

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 17.12.21

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 17.12.21

Pre-Covid levels of confidence bode well for Indonesian consumption

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 22.12.21

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 22.12.21

At most, Omicron will delay--not cancel--a 2022 BoT rate hike

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 04.01.22

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 04.01.22

ASEAN manufacturing ends 2021 on a solid note

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 08.12.21

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 08.12.21

A fleeting eye on Omicron and a more watchful one on core inflation

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 26.10.21

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 26.10.21

Thai exports stabilise after the carnage in recent months

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 29.10.21

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 29.10.21

For now, stability in two-way trade is the best Vietnam can hope for Again, ignore the headline miss... the bounce in retail sales is intact Easing food supply issues mask the pass-through of rising oil prices

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 18.10.21

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 18.10.21

A slow start to the recovery from probably the last lockdown

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 05.01.22

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 05.01.22

Expect India's services PMI to continue rolling over in Q1 Inflation in Thailand should jump back up in February The BSP can now breathe easy, but keep an eye on food prices

PM Datanote: U.S. Durable Goods Orders

PM Datanote: U.S. Durable Goods Orders

In one line: Core orders still trending upwards

PM Datanote: U.S. Weekly Claims/Durable Goods, December

PM Datanote: U.S. Weekly Claims/Durable Goods, December

In one line: Core orders likely constrained by Omicron; trends rising. Claims still high but likely have peaked.

PM Datanote: U.S. CPI, April

PM Datanote: U.S. CPI, April

In one line: Disappointing core, but details are better than the 0.6% print

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 24.11.21 Japan's PMI adds to positive momentum

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 24.11.21 Japan's PMI adds to positive momentum

Japan remains set for a healthy rebound in Q4 Chinese property sector update

Global Datanote: Bank of Japan policy meeting, December

Global Datanote: Bank of Japan policy meeting, December

In one line: Tinkering at the edges, but the elusive inflation target remains the focus

UK Datanote: U.K. Public Finances, March 2022

UK Datanote: U.K. Public Finances, March 2022

In one line: The estimate of 2021/22 borrowing will be revised down in time, much closer to the OBR's forecast.

UK Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, March 2022

UK Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, March 2022

In one line: Another solid month, but Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the outlook for falling real incomes are weighing on corporate confidence.

PM Datanote: U.S. Existing Home Sales, February

PM Datanote: U.S. Existing Home Sales, February

In one line: The market is turning down; expect a sustained weakening

PM Datanote: U.S. New Home Sales

PM Datanote: U.S. New Home Sales

In one line: The trend has turned, but sales have much further to fall

PM Datanote: U.S. Retail Sales, March, and Weekly Jobless Claims

PM Datanote: U.S. Retail Sales, March, and Weekly Jobless Claims

In one line: Net, sales stronger than expected due to upward revisions.

EZ Datanote: Detailed Inflation, Germany, February

EZ Datanote: Detailed Inflation, Germany, February

In one line: Core inflation rebounded, and likely will climb further.

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 19.11.21 Few surprises from Japanese inflation

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 19.11.21 Few surprises from Japanese inflation

Another month dominated by transitory effects for Japanese prices Kishida starts his new term with a Big Bang

PM Datanote: U.S. Chicago PMI, April

PM Datanote: U.S. Chicago PMI, April

In one line: Unexpectedly soft, but more volatile than the national ISM index

PM Datanote: U.S. CPI, January

PM Datanote: U.S. CPI, January

In one line: Ouch (but better news on vehicle prices)

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, Italy & Eurozone, Q4 2021

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, Italy & Eurozone, Q4 2021

In one line: Growth is now slowing in Italy and will remain soft in the EZ.

EZ Datanote: Full-Year GDP, Germany, 2021

EZ Datanote: Full-Year GDP, Germany, 2021

In one line: Q4 was nothing to write home about, Q1 likely will be worse.

EZ Datanote: Detailed Q3 GDP, Italy

EZ Datanote: Detailed Q3 GDP, Italy

In one line: Q3's stellar performance was driven by consumption; Q4 will see slower spending.

China+ Datanote: GDP, Japan, Q3

China+ Datanote: GDP, Japan, Q3

In one line: a messy quarter hit by multiple transitory shocks

EZ Datanote: EC Sentiment, Eurozone, October

EZ Datanote: EC Sentiment, Eurozone, October

In one line: A surprisingly upbeat survey but the detail is not all positive.

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, Spain, Q3

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, Spain, Q3

In one line: Disappointing rise in GDP in Q3 for Spain.

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, Germany & Italy, Q3

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, Germany & Italy, Q3

In one line: Slight disappointment in Germany, and another consensus-beating headline in Italy.

PM Datanote: U.S. FOMC Minutes, December

PM Datanote: U.S. FOMC Minutes, December

In one line: Inflation fears dominated the discussion, but uncertainties are great.

 

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