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Samuel Tombs

Chief US Economist 

NZN_6108

Samuel Tombs heads the U.S. team at Pantheon, prior to which he spent 15 years as a leading UK economist, with an unrivalled track record for forecasting accuracy. Under his stewardship, the U.S. team outperformed the consensus in 2025 with forecasts for market-sensitive private payrolls, and ranked number one among all forecasters on Bloomberg for the headline CPI.

Samuel combines a forensic approach to data analysis with deep knowledge about how the figures are constructed. He is adept at quickly drawing out the implications of data releases and news for the outlook for monetary policy.

Samuel holds an MSc in Economics from Birkbeck College, University of London and an undergraduate degree in History and Economics from the University of Oxford. In 2011, Samuel won the Society of Business Economics’ prestigious Rybczynski Prize for an article on quantitative easing.


Recent key calls include:

Consistently forecast from February 2025 that the FOMC would ease by 75bp by the end of that year in response to a weaker labor market. For many months, the consensus view among markets and most economists was that the FOMC would ease much less.

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