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Duncan Wrigley

Chief China+ Economist 

NZN_5550

Duncan Wrigley produces the China+ service for Pantheon, covering China, Japan and Korea. He was previously Chief Strategist at Everbright Securities International, with a focus on China economic policy research. Before that he worked as an economist at Shui On Land, a property developer headquartered in Shanghai. That followed positions at the Economist Group, Business Monitor International and the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Duncan has an MA in International Relations and International Economics from Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies and a BA in Philosophy, Politics and Economics from Oxford University. He speaks fluent Mandarin.


Recent key calls include:

January 2023 – Rightly foresaw that China will export disinflation, even after reopening.

January 2023 – Correctly expected that policymakers would step up targeted economic support, but refrain from a massive, broad stimulus of the kind following the Global Financial Crisis, meaning that the property sector especially is set for a drawn-out recovery.

December 2024 – Rightly anticipated that Chinese policymakers would take a drip-feed policy approach to growth support, leaving room to mitigate tariff impact.

December 2024 – Correctly expected producer deflation to continue in 2025.

July 2025 – Rightly projected more quasi-fiscal support, confirmed with end-September announcement of policy bank measures.

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