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5th Jan 2022 15:56U.S., Daily Monitor

  • Our final December jobs forecast is 850K; we expect the initial print to be revised up up to about 1M.
  • Forecasting payrolls during Covid is a nightmare, but the risk to the 424K December consensus is clear.
  • We now expect the first Fed hike in March, with two further hikes later in the year, and a steeper curve.

adp asset asset purchases cpi credit debt debt ceiling equipment fed fed hike forecast growth inflation investment it job growth jobs market payroll payroll numbers payrolls policymakers private payrolls productivity productivity growth qe rates spending stock summer survey treasuries wages yield yields

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