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16 May 2022 Mean-Reversion in Margins will Drive Inflation Down, Perhaps Quickly

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)16th May 2022 00:30U.S., Daily Monitor, Weekly Monitor

The surge in inflation is largely a margin story; costs have jumped too, but margins are the bigger factor.
Absent structural change in markets, margins will mean-revert, pulling inflation down, but how quickly?
The Empire State survey looks primed for a correction after the inexplicably strong April reading.

April bls caixin caixin pmi core cpi core inflation core pce core pce inflation cpi crude oil prices December economy empire state empire state survey energy fed growth housing index inflation labor labor costs manufacturing manufacturing sector May national accounts oil oil prices pce pce inflation pmi ppi ppi data profit profit margins remain retail survey u.s. u.s. manufacturing unit labor costs wage growth

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