Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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winter Oil

31 Aug 2021 Home Price Gains are Slowing, Case- Shiller will Catch Up, Eventually

  • The rate of increase of existing home prices is slowing sharply, but the Case-Shiller data are slow to respond.
  • Downside risk for August consumer confidence, but we already know that Delta is scaring people.
  • Boeing's recovery is supporting the Chicago PMI, but growth in national manufacturing is moderating.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

30 Aug 2021 Q3 Growth Set for 4-to-5%, but Inventories are a Wild Card

  • The unwinding of the Q2 stimulus boost and the Delta hit mean that consumption looks set to fall in Q3…
  • …But rising business capex and a potentially massive rebound in inventories will support growth.
  • Powell's defense of "transitory" and push for full employment means no taper until data are clearer.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

12 July 2021 Is the Treasury Market Really Sigalling Slower Growth?

We find ourselves at odds with a couple of ideas gaining currency among the commentariat, namely, that markets are becoming less worried about inflation risk, and that the rise in oil prices will materially slow the rate of U.S. economic growth.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

8 July 2021 Does Trimmed Mean Inflation Signal Broader Trouble Ahead

The Dallas Fed last week published a short blog post—seehere—focused on the predictive power of their trimmed mean PCE inflation measure. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

8 June 2021 Fundamentals, not Surveys, will Drive the Fed, but the Surveys are Startling

In 2015, key labor market indicators from the NFIB small business survey returned to levels last seen at the peak of the cycle in 2007, and unemployment hit the Fed's then-estimate of the Nairu.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 May 2021 One Huge Core CPI won't Move the Fed, but it Surely has their Attention

A year or so from now, if the economy is beset by stubbornly high inflation, and the Fed is hammering asset prices by aggressively tightening policy in order to stem a further upward twist of the spiral, it's a fair bet that we'll look back to last week's data and say: "That's when they should have thrown up their hands, admitted they underestimated the inflation pressures triggered by unprecedented policy easing, and signaled a shift in policy."

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 May 2021 Noise Likely to Outweight the Signal in April's Retail Sales and IP Data

The April retail sales and industrial production numbers today are wild cards, with the former especially hard to predict after the stimulus-fuelled surge in spending in March.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

11 May 2021 Small Firms' Sentiment is Improving, Inflation Pressures Rising

A further improvement in sentiment among small firms seems a decent bet for today's April NFIB survey.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Mar 2021 Deeply Embedded Low Inflation Psychology didn't End Well in the 60s

If you were managing a bond portfolio in the early 1960s, you wouldn't have given much thought to inflation risk. The average CPI inflation rate in the 1950s was 2.1%, and the first five years of the sixties saw inflation averaging just 1.2%. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 Mar 2021. Stocks don't Need to Keep Falling on the Back of Higher Yields

The S&P 500 probably has fallen far enough fully
to reflect the valuation hit from the rise in Treasury yields, and the Nasdaq probably has overshot.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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