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After two months of upside surprises, most auto industry publications expect today's May headline sales number to drop quite sharply,
It would not be fair, yet, to describe the industrial recovery as faltering, though you could be forgiven for looking at the recent path of core durable goods orders and wondering.
It's tempting to look at our first chart and think that the recovery in capex is hitting a wall.
The 9.8% surge in March retail sales comfortably beat the consensus because the consensus was too timid, given that the March stimulus payments were two-and- a-half times bigger than the January handouts.
We have said this before and we'll say it again: We are not monetarists.
Evidence is accumulating that the gradual re-opening
of the economy is making a material difference to the level of activity in the services sector.
The FOMC will revise up its growth forecasts today, in light of the sustained drop in Covid cases and hospitalizations, which is triggering a gradual reopening of the services sector, and the passage of the American Rescue Act, which will pump $1.9T into the economy.
The February retail sales numbers are a real wild card; you should be braced for outcomes some distance from the consensus forecasts, in either direction.
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