Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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- December's grim retail sales report likely will be followed by further weakness in January...
- Spending has been hit, temporarily, by a one-two punch from early holiday shopping, then Omicron.
- The Fed is dead set on starting to tighten soon, but the upcoming data should dampen Q2 expectations.
- The debt ceiling deal means that net Treasury issu- ance is set to rebound, just as the Fed steps back.
- Wholesalers are rapidly rebuilding their inventory, but they have a long way to go.
- Jobless claims will be seasonally afflicted until late January, but we look for a dip today.
- ADP's November employment number likely will be boosted by the fading drag from the Delta variant.
- Chair Powell has retired "transitory", and kicked open the door to faster tapering, Omicron permitting.
- The November ISM likely will signal a modest easing in supply pressures; auto sales up again?
- Covid cases are rising in states with low vax rates, waning vax efficacy, and low prior infections...
- ...Colder weather likely is boosting infections in the northern half of the country; expect NE cases to soar.
- New treatment and vaccine protection against severe disease will keep hospitalizations and deaths down.
- The drop in Covid cases has stalled, thanks to a few western states; the downturn should resume soon.
- Manufacturing orders wobbling as supply chain pressures bite harder; no relief yet in sight.
- New auto sales might finally have hit bottom, or not; forecasts for October are all over the map.
- The Delta Covid wave has depressed consumers' confidence, but not for much longer.
- In any event, the key driver of spending next year will be cashflow and the rundown of accumulated savings
- New home sales likely rose again in September, as the re-rebound continues, but the Ida hit is uncertain.
- Higher energy prices are likely to weigh on manufacturing production, but by much less than in Europe.
- Sustained high oil and gas prices will spur business capex as firms seek to reduce energy intensity.
- Hurricane Ida and the downshift in new home sales signal downside risk for September housing starts.
- Rising food service spending despite Covid Delta is a positive sign for fourth quarter consumption.
- We're assuming that the drop in cases continues, facilitating a sustained surge in spending.
- Soaring energy inflation will constrain the rate of in- crease of OER, but it will rise nonetheless.
- September's core CPI was flattered by unsustainable declines in airline fares, lodging and used car prices...
- ...But rents rose at the fastest pace in 15 years, so all eyes now will be on the October report.
- Stop Press: FOMC minutes confirm tapering to be announced at the November meeting.
- Core capital goods orders are the best immediate proxy for business capex; strong growth continues.
- The rebound in mortgage applications and home sales continues after the H1 slump...
- Covid fear, lower rates, and easier lending standards are all helping to push up activity; more to come?
- The FOMC and Chair Powell appear prepared to signal that tapering will start in December.
- Expect more dots for a 2022 rate hike, but the median forecast likely will still be for the first move in 2023.
- Existing home sales are falling slowly, while inventory is rising; price gains are slowing.
- Faster growth in capex will boost productivity quickly, long before the capital stock is fully rebuilt.
- A re-run of the late 90s productivity boom is a high bar, but even a modest gain would make a difference.
- Homebuilders like the Delta-driven uptick in demand, but a return to the winter peak is not in the cards.
- Technicalities flatter August retail sales, but the upside surprise is real; an echo of earlier Covid-era patterns.
- States suffering most from the Delta wave have rela- tively low immunity, but the national wave is breaking.
- The risk of a serious further wave is fading as total immunity approaches Delta-suppressing levels.
- Delta dampened August job growth; September will be weak too, and October is at risk.
- The tapering announcement will be delayed; December now looks the best bet, but it could be later.
- Fed hawks will continue to emphasize faster wage growth; Chair Powell is focussed on unit labor costs
- Homebase and ADP both suggest Delta hurt August job gains; we look for a 400K payroll print tomorrow.
- The modest August gain in the ISM likely won't be sustained; supply-chain pressures have peaked.
- Mortgage applications have risen for two straight months; the revival likely will continue in September
Chair Powell made it clear yesterday that the Fed's leadership is sticking to its view that the reopening surge in inflation is due mostly to "base effects… and production bottlenecks or other supply constraints", which will not last.