Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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wage data

18 Jan 2022 Omicron is Hurting, but the Pain Should Start to Ease in February

  • December's grim retail sales report likely will be followed by further weakness in January...
  • Spending has been hit, temporarily, by a one-two punch from early holiday shopping, then Omicron.
  • The Fed is dead set on starting to tighten soon, but the upcoming data should dampen Q2 expectations.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 Jan 2022 Mixed December Data Today Distorted by Omicron and Weather

  • The Omicron hit likely will be visible in the retail sales data, but the core goods numbers should be OK.
  • Industrial production probably was depressed by very warm December weather; expect a quick rebound.
  • Car prices are beginning to moderate in the PPI, both at the manufacturer and dealer margin levels.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 Jan 2022 High Inflation will Force the First Hike, Thereafter, Wage Growth is Key

  • CPI inflation will peak in the next few months, but the speed of the coming downshift is unclear.
  • China's PPI inflation is now falling and has further to go; the U.S. will follow soon.
  • Seasonal adjustment issues likely pushed jobless claims up again last week, but the trend is falling.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

11 Jan 2022 Covid Cases Peaking and will Soon Fall, Real-Time Activity Data to Follow

  • Covid cases look to be peaking, but ICU occupancy looks set for new pandemic highs.
  • The situation will look much better a month from now, as cases drop and Paxlovid cuts hospitalizations.
  • As Covid finally recedes, people will start to spend their accumulated savings.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

10 Jan 2022 Unemployment at 3.9% Matters More to the Fed than Sluggish Payrolls

  • The relative softness in December payrolls is hard to explain, but the labor market is still tightening.
  • Sub-4% unemployment is enough to convince most FOMC members than an early rate hike is needed.
  • We expect the first hike in March, with an increasing chance of three further hikes this year.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 Jan 2022 December Payroll Risk is to the Upside, did Participation Rise Again

  • The risk to December payrolls is decidedly to the up- side; we look for 850K, against the 444K consensus.
  • A further rise in participation would be hugely significant, signalling an easing of excess labor demand.
  • The ISM services survey suggests that supply-chain pressures are easing, but they remain intense.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. ADP Employment, December

In one line: Strong, supporting the signal from the Homebase data.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

5 Jan 2022 Homebase Points to a December Jobs Jump; ADP Likely Less Dramatic

  • The Homebase small business jobs data point to December payrolls rising by 1M-plus...
  • ADP's numbers today likely will be far short of this pace, but we see upside risk to the consensus.
  • Supply chain pressures continue to ease; expect the key ISM readings to be at normal levels by the spring.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

4 Jan 2022 While we were Out... Omicron Cases Rocketed, but not for Much Longer

  • Covid cases still rocketing, but they likely will peak over the next couple weeks.
  • The economic hit will be smaller and briefer than during the Delta wave, but it will be visible nonetheless.
  • The December ISM survey likely will show that supply-chain pressures are easing, gradually

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

24 Dec 2021 While We're Out, Omicron Cases will Rocket, but don't Worry, Much

  • Omicron cases likely will double over the holidays, but what matters is hospitalizations...
  • ...A clear increase is inevitable, but pressure on hospi- tals will be less intense that in the January 2021 wave.
  • Don't worry about November's soft core capex orders and new home sales numbers; noise not signal.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

20 Dec 2021 Can the Private Sector Cope with More than a Modest Fed Tightening?

  • Faster productivity growth means higher real neutral rates, but can the private sector cope?
  • Households and firms are in good shape, with low debt service ratios and transformed balance sheets.
  • Markets don't believe the Fed's dotplot, but it's more likely that the markets will have to move up.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 Dec 2021 Faster Tapering, and Faster Hikes

The Fed's tapering and rate hike plans assume only a modest hit from Omicron; we hope they're right.

Chair Powell emphasised the threat from rapid wage gains; all eyes on labor participation, and the Q4 ECI.

The abrupt slowing in core retail sales in November is no big deal; a correction was due after rapid gains.



Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 Dec 2021 Headline Inflation Close to Peaking; the Core will Rise Much Further

  • Headline inflation is unlikely to rise much further, but the core rate still some way to climb.
  • Faster rent inflation is now well-established, and upward pressure elsewhere is yet to peak.
  • A steep drop inflation from next spring remains a good bet, but the Fed needs insurance.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

10 Dec 2021 Upside Risks Abound for November Inflation, No Relief Until Q2

  • Threats to rents, vehicle prices, airline fares and hotel room rates mean upside core CPI risk today.
  • The next few months will see core inflation rise towards 7%; the Fed's pivot is a pre-emptive strike.
  • It's still reasonable to expect inflation to fall very sharply next year, but the Fed can't be certain.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

9 Dec 2021 Debt Ceiling Deal Means More Net Issuance, as the Fed Tapers Faster

  • The debt ceiling deal means that net Treasury issu- ance is set to rebound, just as the Fed steps back.
  • Wholesalers are rapidly rebuilding their inventory, but they have a long way to go.
  • Jobless claims will be seasonally afflicted until late January, but we look for a dip today.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

3 Dec 2021 Payroll Growth Still Struggling to Regain pre-Delta Momentum

  • Job growth has strengthened from the summer lows, but seems not yet to be back to the pre-Delta pace.
  • Participation is the key variable for the Fed; it has to rise, soon, in order to constrain wage gains.
  • Hourly earnings growth in November likely was limit- ed by a calendar quirk; expect stronger in December.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 Dec 2021 Upside Risk for November ADP Employment as Delta Hit Fades

  • ADP's November employment number likely will be boosted by the fading drag from the Delta variant.
  • Chair Powell has retired "transitory", and kicked open the door to faster tapering, Omicron permitting.
  • The November ISM likely will signal a modest easing in supply pressures; auto sales up again?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

30 Nov 2021 Net Foreign Trade is Set to Augment Strong Domestic Demand in Q4

  • Most of the variation in GDP growth since Covid has been due to wild swings in domestic demand...
  • ...But net foreign trade looks set to make a meaningful contribution in Q4, alongside strong consumption.
  • The continued increase in core capital goods orders signals faster future productivity growth.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

24 Nov 2021 Pre-Holiday Data Wave Headlines will be Mixed, Trends Mostly Good

  • Jobless claims look set to plunge to a new, though temporary, pandemic low.
  • Downside risk for headline durable goods orders, but core capex orders are what matter.
  • October's core PCE deflator likely rose by less than the core CPI, but further big gains are coming.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Nov 2021 What has to Happen to Get the Fed off the Inflation Hook?

  • If the Fed's transitory view is to be proved correct, wage growth has to slow, so participation has to rise.
  • Productivity growth has to rise too, and global supply chain pressures have to fade.
  • These are all reasonable bets, but nothing is certain, and inflation will rise much further in the near-term.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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