Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

used cars

13 Sept 2022 US Monitor Another Moderate Core CPI Print is a Good Bet, but not a Certainty

  • Core inflation clearly is slowing, but August brings risks in both directions; vehicle prices are wild.  
  • Airline fares likely plunged, but hotel room rates probably jumped, and rents are still rising strongly.
  • Small business sentiment likely rebounded as gas prices dropped, and selling prices probably fell.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

9 Sept 2022 US Monitor Vice Chair Brainard Says Lower Margins will Reduce Inflation; Agreed

  • The Fed finally has started to talk about the impact of margins on inflation, after months of baffling silence.
  • Vice-Chair Brainard says wider margins drove up inflation; a reversal could drive it back down.
  • Jobless claims hit a three-month low; the feared summer surge in layoffs did not happen.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 Aug 2022 US Monitor First Look at August Payrolls Suggests Another Hefty Increase

The Homebase data suggest August payrolls were about as strong as July's.

Core retail sales likely rose quite strongly in July; the headline will be depressed by falling gas prices.

Soaring vehicle production is flattering industrial pro- duction, but it will boost GDP and depress inflation.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 June 2022 No Relief as Energy, Food, Cars, and Rent Hide Better Core-Core CPI

The downturn in core inflation is set to stall over the summer, while the headline rate will hit new highs…

…But core-core prices are now rising less quickly, thanks to slowing wage gains.

The Fed will hike by 50bp this week and in July, markets permitting, but we expect 25bp in September.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Consumer Prices, April

Rents, airline fares and used vehicle prices did the damage; elsehwere, less bad

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

11 May 2022 CPI Base Effects Turn Favorable, but Look Out for Sequential Slowing too

Both headline and core inflation likely dropped sharp- ly in April, mostly due to base effects...

...But look out too for falling used vehicle prices, and a sequential slowing in the core-core index.

The net risk to the consensus probably is to the downside, but that’s a low-conviction call.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence