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The Homebase data suggest August payrolls were about as strong as July's.
Core retail sales likely rose quite strongly in July; the headline will be depressed by falling gas prices.
Soaring vehicle production is flattering industrial pro- duction, but it will boost GDP and depress inflation.
The downturn in core inflation is set to stall over the summer, while the headline rate will hit new highs…
…But core-core prices are now rising less quickly, thanks to slowing wage gains.
The Fed will hike by 50bp this week and in July, markets permitting, but we expect 25bp in September.
Rents, airline fares and used vehicle prices did the damage; elsehwere, less bad
Both headline and core inflation likely dropped sharp- ly in April, mostly due to base effects...
...But look out too for falling used vehicle prices, and a sequential slowing in the core-core index.
The net risk to the consensus probably is to the downside, but that’s a low-conviction call.
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