Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
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- ADP's November employment number likely will be boosted by the fading drag from the Delta variant.
- Chair Powell has retired "transitory", and kicked open the door to faster tapering, Omicron permitting.
- The November ISM likely will signal a modest easing in supply pressures; auto sales up again?
- Most of the variation in GDP growth since Covid has been due to wild swings in domestic demand...
- ...But net foreign trade looks set to make a meaningful contribution in Q4, alongside strong consumption.
- The continued increase in core capital goods orders signals faster future productivity growth.
- Jobless claims look set to plunge to a new, though temporary, pandemic low.
- Downside risk for headline durable goods orders, but core capex orders are what matter.
- October's core PCE deflator likely rose by less than the core CPI, but further big gains are coming.
- Chair Powell's re-appointment and the impending new board appointments will keep the Fed dovish...
- ...But an immediate acceleration of the tapering pace in December can't be ruled out.
- Home prices continue to rocket as rising sales leave no room for inventory to recover.
- Used vehicle auction prices are still rising, but the rate of increase has slowed; is the worst over?
- A year from now, and possibly much sooner, we ex- pect car prices to be in free-fall.
- Surging Philly Fed and Empire State surveys suggest that the strong manufacturing rebound continues.
- The Fed wants to reach maximum employment be- fore raising rates; it's still a long way off...
- ...Fully recovering the ground lost during Covid likely will take almost a year.
- The November Philly Fed likely will add to evidence suggesting peak supply chain pressure has passed.
- If the Fed's transitory view is to be proved correct, wage growth has to slow, so participation has to rise.
- Productivity growth has to rise too, and global supply chain pressures have to fade.
- These are all reasonable bets, but nothing is certain, and inflation will rise much further in the near-term.
- October's leap in the core CPI will be followed by a run of further hefty increases...
- ...Core inflation is likely to blast through 6% early next year, posing a serious challenge to the Fed.
- Chair Powell wants to stick to "transitory", but he needs to see labor participation surging, and fast.
- The October core CPI likely rebounded after a run of benign readings, but the uncertainty is great...
- Used auto prices, airline fares, and rents all pose clear upside risk, but nothing is certain.
- The unexpected plunge in PPI new vehicles prices in October likely is a technicality rather than a real shift.
- Small businesses' sentiment has been hit hard by Delta; is a rebound now underway?
- The NFIB signals continued labor market tightness but suggests inflation will fall next year.
- Brace for upside risk in the October PPI; the September plunge in airline fares was a one-time event.
- Momentum is building in payrolls; the next few months should see 1M-plus gains.
- Substantially faster payroll growth requires a clear increase in participation; that's a decent bet.
- A rebalancing of labor demand and supply would reduce the upward pressure on wage growth.
- Chair Powell is sticking to "transitory", though it will take longer for inflation to fall than previously hoped.
- The Fed still is not talking about higher rates, but tapering could be accelerated if necessary.
- Productivity likely dropped sharply in Q3, but it will rebound in Q4 and the outlook is very favorable.
- The tapering announcement today is a done deal; what Chair Powell says about inflation matters more.
- Expect a defense of the transitory arguments, but with a warning of hefty near-term upside risk.
- Homebase data point to a third straight disappointing payroll print, thanks to the Delta Covid wave.
- The drop in Covid cases has stalled, thanks to a few western states; the downturn should resume soon.
- Manufacturing orders wobbling as supply chain pressures bite harder; no relief yet in sight.
- New auto sales might finally have hit bottom, or not; forecasts for October are all over the map.
- The Fed faces serious challenges to the "transitory" story over the next few months...
- ...On top of surging wages, the core CPI is set to surge, and economic growth is likely to rebound.
- With the Fed set to taper, just as issuance rebounds after the debt ceiling is fixed, expect yields to jump.
- Employment costs likely accelerated in the third quarter, but are they rising dangerously fast...
- ...Or will faster wage gains be offset by stronger pro- ductivity growth, as in the late nineties?
- The softness of third quarter GDP growth has nothing to say about the fourth; expect a rebound.
- GDP growth likely slowed to just 23⁄4%, constrained by temporarily stalled consumption.
- If growth is far from the consensus, 2.6%, look first at the inventory component, which is a wild card.
- GDP remains below the level implied by the pre-Covid trend, but the gap will close by next spring.
- The supply chain nightmare is a consequence of a sudden change in initial conditions...
- ...In some systems, such changes trigger chaos; the outcomes appear wild, or random, but they aren't.
- Eventually, the system will respond; initial conditions will mean-revert; and supply chain chaos will end.
Core CPI inflation looks set to power past 5% by the year-end as used car prices and airline fares rebound.
The peak will come early next year, but the rate will remain elevated for most of the year.
If unit labor costs remain controlled, the "transitory" story is sustainable, but expect pressure on the Fed.
- Unit labor costs are key to the U.S. inflation story, but global factors matter too...
- ...If China is no longer a source of disinflation pressure, the Fed will have less room for labor cost maneuver.
- Ignore the decline in September housing construc- tion; it's much more noise than signal.