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- The recent pace of decline in initial jobless claims can't be sustained, but they should keep falling.
- As the economy re-accelerates post-Delta, labor de- mand will rise and layoffs will hit new lows.
- Home sales likely rose strongly in September, but the impact of Hurricane Ida is a wild card.
- Unit labor costs are key to the U.S. inflation story, but global factors matter too...
- ...If China is no longer a source of disinflation pressure, the Fed will have less room for labor cost maneuver.
- Ignore the decline in September housing construc- tion; it's much more noise than signal.
- Higher energy prices are likely to weigh on manufacturing production, but by much less than in Europe.
- Sustained high oil and gas prices will spur business capex as firms seek to reduce energy intensity.
- Hurricane Ida and the downshift in new home sales signal downside risk for September housing starts.
- Retail sales growth likely slowed in September, but that's not necessarily bad news…
- …The decline in Covid cases likely pushed up spending on non-retail services, at the expense of goods.
- Consumers' sentiment likely has improved this month, but the surge in energy prices is a wild card.
- September job gains fell short of the pace implied by Homebase, but October likely will be much better.
- Wage pressures continue to build, but labor supply should rebound strongly in Q4.
- Job openings likely hit yet another record high in August, but the Delta effect is uncertain.
- In one line: Solid orders growth, despite China slowdown and supply-chain problems.
- China's manufacturing slowdown is not helpful to the U.S., but it is a long way from a hammer-blow.
- Consumers' spending likely rose a bit in August, but September won't be great; Q4 should be much better.
- The core PCE spike is over, but airline fares will lift the August reading relative to the core CPI.
- Cross-currents in the core CPI suggest further volatility over the next few months…
- …But a repeat of the spring surge is unlikely, even as hotel room rates and airline fares rebound, post-Delta.
- The NFIB survey hints that small firms are responding to tight labor markets by increasing their capex
- Delta dampened August job growth; September will be weak too, and October is at risk.
- The tapering announcement will be delayed; December now looks the best bet, but it could be later.
- Fed hawks will continue to emphasize faster wage growth; Chair Powell is focussed on unit labor costs
- A 400K payroll print today would confirm other evidence pointing to a clear Delta hit to growth.
- September payrolls likely will be depressed too; that's the last report before the November FOMC meeting.
- Delta damage to discretionary consumers' spending signals downside risk for ISM services today.
- In one line: A welcome surprise, but unlikely to last.
- Homebase and ADP both suggest Delta hurt August job gains; we look for a 400K payroll print tomorrow.
- The modest August gain in the ISM likely won't be sustained; supply-chain pressures have peaked.
- Mortgage applications have risen for two straight months; the revival likely will continue in September
- We look for a 700K rebound in ADP's measure of pri- vate payrolls for August, but it is not always reliable.
- China's weakening PMIs and lower regional U.S. read- ings point to downside risk for the ISM index today.
- New housing construction has peaked; it will soon start to fall, following the drop in new home sales
- The rate of increase of existing home prices is slowing sharply, but the Case-Shiller data are slow to respond.
- Downside risk for August consumer confidence, but we already know that Delta is scaring people.
- Boeing's recovery is supporting the Chicago PMI, but growth in national manufacturing is moderating.
- The U.S. and China have reached peak economic integration; the next big move is the other way...
- ...But this is a longer term trend story; for now, U.S. and Chinese manufacturing are still closely linked.
- Home price gains are slowing sharply as inventory rises and demand returns to pre-Covid levels.
- FOMC splits and the Delta wave suggest the tapering announcement will be no sooner than November.
- The trend in jobless claims seems still to be falling, as the run of seasonally-distorted numbers ends.
- Downside risk for the Philly Fed today; the global manufacturing recovery is moderating.
July retail sales likely were barely troubled by the Covid Delta wave; the risks to August are bigger...
...Mobility data suggest that retail footfall is declining in the hardest-hit Southeastern quadrant of the U.S.
Manufacturing output likely rebounded in July, but the rate of recovery in the sector is moderating.
What should we make of the news that manufacturing production fell outright in June—just—but that the Empire State manufacturing index has rocketed to a record high?
Chair Powell made it clear yesterday that the Fed's leadership is sticking to its view that the reopening surge in inflation is due mostly to "base effects… and production bottlenecks or other supply constraints", which will not last.
The June auto sales numbers attracted very little attention last week, as the data came sandwiched between the ISM manufacturing survey and the payroll report.