Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

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19 Jan 2022 Soaring Oil Prices will Lift Headline Inflation, and Slow the Core Decline

  • December's grim retail sales report likely will be fol- lowed by further weakness in January...
  • Spending has been hit, temporarily, by a one-two punch from early holiday shopping, then Omicron.
  • The Fed is dead set on starting to tighten soon, but the upcoming data should dampen Q2 expectations.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 Jan 2022 Mixed December Data Today Distorted by Omicron and Weather

  • The Omicron hit likely will be visible in the retail sales data, but the core goods numbers should be OK.
  • Industrial production probably was depressed by very warm December weather; expect a quick rebound.
  • Car prices are beginning to moderate in the PPI, both at the manufacturer and dealer margin levels.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 Jan 2022 High Inflation will Force the First Hike, Thereafter, Wage Growth is Key

  • CPI inflation will peak in the next few months, but the speed of the coming downshift is unclear.
  • China's PPI inflation is now falling and has further to go; the U.S. will follow soon.
  • Seasonal adjustment issues likely pushed jobless claims up again last week, but the trend is falling.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

11 Jan 2022 Covid Cases Peaking and will Soon Fall, Real-Time Activity Data to Follow

  • Covid cases look to be peaking, but ICU occupancy looks set for new pandemic highs.
  • The situation will look much better a month from now, as cases drop and Paxlovid cuts hospitalizations.
  • As Covid finally recedes, people will start to spend their accumulated savings.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. ADP Employment, December

In one line: Strong, supporting the signal from the Homebase data.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

5 Jan 2022 Homebase Points to a December Jobs Jump; ADP Likely Less Dramatic

  • The Homebase small business jobs data point to December payrolls rising by 1M-plus...
  • ADP's numbers today likely will be far short of this pace, but we see upside risk to the consensus.
  • Supply chain pressures continue to ease; expect the key ISM readings to be at normal levels by the spring.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

4 Jan 2022 While we were Out... Omicron Cases Rocketed, but not for Much Longer

  • Covid cases still rocketing, but they likely will peak over the next couple weeks.
  • The economic hit will be smaller and briefer than during the Delta wave, but it will be visible nonetheless.
  • The December ISM survey likely will show that supply-chain pressures are easing, gradually

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

24 Dec 2021 While We're Out, Omicron Cases will Rocket, but don't Worry, Much

  • Omicron cases likely will double over the holidays, but what matters is hospitalizations...
  • ...A clear increase is inevitable, but pressure on hospi- tals will be less intense that in the January 2021 wave.
  • Don't worry about November's soft core capex orders and new home sales numbers; noise not signal.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

20 Dec 2021 Can the Private Sector Cope with More than a Modest Fed Tightening?

  • Faster productivity growth means higher real neutral rates, but can the private sector cope?
  • Households and firms are in good shape, with low debt service ratios and transformed balance sheets.
  • Markets don't believe the Fed's dotplot, but it's more likely that the markets will have to move up.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 Dec 2021 Brace for Higher Core PPI Inflation, but the Peak is not Far Off

Core PPI inflation has further to rise, but it should start to fall in January.

The details of the NFIB survey are more important than the headline index...

...Look out for strength in capex plans, and a modest rise in selling prices, lifted by gas prices.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

30 Nov 2021 Net Foreign Trade is Set to Augment Strong Domestic Demand in Q4

  • Most of the variation in GDP growth since Covid has been due to wild swings in domestic demand...
  • ...But net foreign trade looks set to make a meaningful contribution in Q4, alongside strong consumption.
  • The continued increase in core capital goods orders signals faster future productivity growth.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Orders/Claims/Trade, October

  • In one line: Strong core orders; claims depressed by seasonal quirk; exports soaring.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

24 Nov 2021 Pre-Holiday Data Wave Headlines will be Mixed, Trends Mostly Good

  • Jobless claims look set to plunge to a new, though temporary, pandemic low.
  • Downside risk for headline durable goods orders, but core capex orders are what matter.
  • October's core PCE deflator likely rose by less than the core CPI, but further big gains are coming.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Nov 2021 What has to Happen to Get the Fed off the Inflation Hook?

  • If the Fed's transitory view is to be proved correct, wage growth has to slow, so participation has to rise.
  • Productivity growth has to rise too, and global supply chain pressures have to fade.
  • These are all reasonable bets, but nothing is certain, and inflation will rise much further in the near-term.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

9 Nov 2021 Is Small Business Sentiment Rebounding as Delta Cases Fall?

  • Small businesses' sentiment has been hit hard by Delta; is a rebound now underway?
  • The NFIB signals continued labor market tightness but suggests inflation will fall next year.
  • Brace for upside risk in the October PPI; the September plunge in airline fares was a one-time event.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Durable Goods Orders & Advance Goods Trade, September 2021

  • In one line: Core capex orders still rising strongly; trade hit by the lagged effect of lower summer oil prices

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

28 Oct 2021 Consumption Held Back Q3 GDP Growth; Blame Delta, and Chips

  • GDP growth likely slowed to just 23⁄4%, constrained by temporarily stalled consumption.
  • If growth is far from the consensus, 2.6%, look first at the inventory component, which is a wild card.
  • GDP remains below the level implied by the pre-Covid trend, but the gap will close by next spring.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

20 Oct 2021 Does the Pause in Globalization Threaten U.S. Inflation Post-Covid?

  • Unit labor costs are key to the U.S. inflation story, but global factors matter too...
  • ...If China is no longer a source of disinflation pressure, the Fed will have less room for labor cost maneuver.
  • Ignore the decline in September housing construc- tion; it's much more noise than signal.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

18 Oct 2021 Rebounding Spending on Services will Lift Q4 Consumption

  • Rising food service spending despite Covid Delta is a positive sign for fourth quarter consumption.
  • We're assuming that the drop in cases continues, facilitating a sustained surge in spending.
  • Soaring energy inflation will constrain the rate of in- crease of OER, but it will rise nonetheless.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 Oct 2021 September's Core CPI Likely Rose Modestly, but Ongoing Risks Abound

  • We expect a modest 0.2% increase in September's core CPI, but the net risk is to the upside.
  • Used auto prices have rebounded at auction, and we're still waiting for rents to accelerate.
  • The record quits rate in August signals that the Delta wave has not deterred job-switchers.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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