Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
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- Chair Powell sticks to the tightening story, while ac-knowledging uncertainty due to the Ukraine war.
- The unwinding of the Omicron hit should mean lower claims and stronger ISM services today.
- The auto sales rebound is stalling, but Q1 sales still on course to rise by more than 40%, annualized.
- Fed Chair Powell will acknowledge the uncertainty caused by the war in Ukraine…
- …But the impact on the U.S. is not big enough to justify a drastic pivot away from the tightening story.
- The manufacturing recovery continues, but the improvement in supply chains looks to be stalling.
- The enthusiasm among some FOMC members for a rapid balance sheet runoff is misplaced.
- If the FOMC wants to tighten more aggressively, faster rate hikes are less risky and send a clearer signal.
- We think the runoff will begin in the fall, slowly; market conditions will not allow the Fed to move quickly.
- The relative softness in December payrolls is hard to explain, but the labor market is still tightening.
- Sub-4% unemployment is enough to convince most FOMC members than an early rate hike is needed.
- We expect the first hike in March, with an increasing chance of three further hikes this year.
- ADP's November employment number likely will be boosted by the fading drag from the Delta variant.
- Chair Powell has retired "transitory", and kicked open the door to faster tapering, Omicron permitting.
- The November ISM likely will signal a modest easing in supply pressures; auto sales up again?
- Used vehicle auction prices are still rising, but the rate of increase has slowed; is the worst over?
- A year from now, and possibly much sooner, we ex- pect car prices to be in free-fall.
- Surging Philly Fed and Empire State surveys suggest that the strong manufacturing rebound continues.
- The Fed wants to reach maximum employment be- fore raising rates; it's still a long way off...
- ...Fully recovering the ground lost during Covid likely will take almost a year.
- The November Philly Fed likely will add to evidence suggesting peak supply chain pressure has passed.
- Momentum is building in payrolls; the next few months should see 1M-plus gains.
- Substantially faster payroll growth requires a clear increase in participation; that's a decent bet.
- A rebalancing of labor demand and supply would reduce the upward pressure on wage growth.
- The Fed faces serious challenges to the "transitory" story over the next few months...
- ...On top of surging wages, the core CPI is set to surge, and economic growth is likely to rebound.
- With the Fed set to taper, just as issuance rebounds after the debt ceiling is fixed, expect yields to jump.