Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

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spending

19 Feb 2021 Higher-Income People's Spending is Limited by Opportunity, not Cashflow

Higher-Income People's Spending is Limited by Opportunity, not Cashflow

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)18th Feb 2021 18:20U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Personal Income and Spending, December and Employment costs index, Q4 2020

U.S. Personal Income and Spending, December, Employment costs index, Q4 2020

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)29th Jan 2021 10:08U.S.

24 Dec 2020 Look Behind the Headlines for the Real Stories in the Latest Data

This is the final U.S. Monitor for 2020, a year we'll be thrilled to leave behind.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)23rd Dec 2020 18:20U.S.

25 Nov 2020 Yellen will be an Excellent Treasury Secretary, but the Role is Limited

The impending appointment of ex-Fed Chair Yellen as Treasury Secretary is to be welcomed--a safer pair of hands is hard to imagine--but it does not change our view that...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)24th Nov 2020 18:20U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Personal Income and Spending, September and Employment Costs, Q3 2020

In one line: Households in aggregate are cash rich, but spending is Covid-constrained.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)30th Oct 2020 10:00U.S.

30 Oct 2020 What's Happening to Wages?

Before the Covid pandemic struck, the mix-adjusted measure of wages and salaries in the employment costs index was trending up by about 3.0% year-over-year.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)29th Oct 2020 19:10U.S.

28 Oct 2020 What's Really Happening to Home Prices--and What's Coming Next

The best way to answer the perennially vexed question of what's happening to home prices is to take a deep breath and cite a range, given that the four main measures of prices...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)27th Oct 2020 19:10U.S.

27 Oct 2020 Capex Orders and Shipments Still Rising, but Momentum is Easing

We're expecting to learn today that shipments of core capital goods jumped at a 33% annualized rate in the third quarter, a record increase, and more than reversing the 19.7%...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)26th Oct 2020 19:10U.S.

26 Oct 2020 The Manufacturing Recovery Can Continue as Goods Spending Rises

Back in the olden days, we argued that shifts in the global manufacturing cycle often originated in China, and then fed into the U.S. and European data with a lag of one-to-three...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)25th Oct 2020 19:10U.S.

23 Oct 2020 Happy Holidays Coming for (Some) Retailers even as Covid Surges

When we're thinking about the prospects for the holiday shopping season, we usually focus on two questions.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)22nd Oct 2020 20:50U.S.

19 Oct 2020 The Big Threat to Q4 Consumption is Covid, not Consumers' Cashflow

The third quarter ended with a bit of a bang for retailers, with sales rising strongly, even in the woebegone department store sector. The apparent loss of momentum in July and...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)18th Oct 2020 19:20U.S.

2 Oct 2020 Decent September Payrolls don't Guarantee a Repeat in October

We look for a 950K increase in September private payrolls, more than the 700K or so implied by the Homebase daily employment data but consistent with ADP, assuming it has...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)1st Oct 2020 19:20U.S.

US Datanote: Weekly jobless claims, Personal income and spending, August 2020

In one line: The trend decline in claims is barely visible; spending momentum has slowed sharply.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)1st Oct 2020 11:44U.S.

15 Sept 2020 The Manufacturing Sector is Losing Steam, but Autos have Further to go

Momentum in the rebound in economic activity has faded over the past couple months, housing and auto sales aside.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)14th Sep 2020 19:20U.S.

11 Sept 2020 Upside Risk for the August CPI, Used Car Prices are the Key Threat

In the wake of the surprise 0.6% July surge in the core CPI, the biggest increase since January 1991--most forecasters look for mean reversion to 0.2% in today's August...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)10th Sep 2020 19:20U.S.

1 Sep 2020 Decent Data Today won't Change the Deteriorating Q4 Outlook

Today brings a raft of data which mostly will look quite positive but will do nothing to assuage our fears over a sharp slowdown in growth in the fourth quarter.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)31st Aug 2020 19:10U.S.

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