Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

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21 Apr 2020 All Pain and No Gain as Oil Prices Plunge, the Windfall is Unspent

Under normal circumstances, the boost to consumption from the astonishing collapse in oil prices would act as a substantial--though not complete--offset to the hit to...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)20th Apr 2020 20:20U.S.

16 Aug 2019 Consumption Started Q3 Strongly Industry Still in the Doldrums

The surge in July core retail sales was flattered by the impact of the Amazon Prime Event, which helped drive a 2.8% leap in sales at nonstore retailers.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)15th Aug 2019 20:10U.S.

18 June 2019 Chainstore Sales Growth is Set to Slow Sharply Don't Worry

The chainstore sales numbers have been hard to read over the past year.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)17th Jun 2019 20:20U.S.

3 June 2019 Trade is Now Trump's Weapon for Everything, but it Shoots Backwards

The chance of a self-inflicted, unnecessary weakening in the economy this year, and perhaps even a recession, has increased markedly in the wake of the president's...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)2nd Jun 2019 20:20U.S.

20 May 2019 Soaring Sales at Discounters Explain the Strong Redbook, Mostly

We have been puzzled in recent months by the sudden and substantial divergence between the Redbook chainstore sales numbers and the official data.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)19th May 2019 20:20U.S.

22 March 2019 Existing Home Sales have Bottomed, but Price Gains Still Slowing

Existing home sales peaked last February, and the news since then has been almost unremittingly gloomy.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)21st Mar 2019 20:20U.S.

29 January 2019 No Trade Data Today, but You Can Assume the Trend is Deteriorating

The advance international trade data for December were due for publication today, but the report probably won't appear.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)28th Jan 2019 19:20U.S.

19 November 2018 The Drop in Oil Prices will Hurt, but not too Badly, Retailers will Benefit

The plunge in oil prices in recent weeks is not a threat to the overall U.S. economic growth story in the near term--we have always expected growth to slow, but remain decent,...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)18th Nov 2018 19:20U.S.

12 October 2018 What Happens Under Maximum China Tariffs Clue It's not Good

The imposition of 10% tariffs on $200B-worth of Chinese imports is not a serious threat either to U.S. economic growth--the tariffs amount to 0.1% of GDP--or inflation.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)11th Oct 2018 20:20U.S.

11 October 2018 The Core CPI Probably Rebounded in September

We'd be surprised to see a repeat today of August's very modest 0.08% increase in the core CPI.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)10th Oct 2018 20:10U.S.

18 September 2018 Chainstore Sales Growth has Jumped Thank the Tax Cuts

The first estimate of retail sales growth in August was weaker than implied by the Redbook chainstore sales survey, but our first chart shows that the difference between the...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)17th Sep 2018 20:20U.S.

30 July 2018 Growth is Strong, but 4%-plus Cannot be Sustained

The biggest single surprise in the second quarter GDP report was the unexpected $28B real-terms drop in inventories.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)29th Jul 2018 18:10U.S.

14 May 2018 Could Foreign Trade Propel Second Quarter GDP Growth to 5%?

To answer the question: Yes, growth could hit 5% in the second quarter.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)13th May 2018 17:59U.S.

6 March 2018 Inventories Rebounding in Q1

The wide spread in first quarter GDP growth "trackers"--which at this point are more model and assumption than actual data--is indicative of the uncertainty...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)5th Mar 2018 16:30U.S.

22 February 2018 Jobless Claims Still Under Downward Pressure, Labor is Scarce

We have learned over the years not to become too excited in the face of swings in the jobless claims numbers, even when the movement appears to persist for a month or two.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)21st Feb 2018 16:20U.S.

22 January 2018 The Government Shutdown is Theater, but Could Become a Threat

As we reach our Sunday afternoon deadline, no deal has been reached to re-open the federal government.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)21st Jan 2018 15:57U.S.

12 December 2017 Core PPI Inflation Is Rising Rapidly. Even as Core CPI PCE Slow

The sudden downshift in core inflation at the consumer level since March, clearly visible in the CPI and the PCE, and shown in our first chart, has been accompanied by a steady...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)11th Dec 2017 05:26U.S.

28 November 2017 Consumers' Spending Ought to be Strong this Holiday Season

Media reports suggest that the underlying trends in retailing--rising online sales, declining store sales and mall visits--continued unabated over the Thanksgiving weekend.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)27th Nov 2017 06:20U.S.

12 October 2017 Core PPI at Risk from Hurricanes. Trend is Rising too, Slowly

Our forecast for a 0.3% increase in the September core PPI, slightly above the underlying trend, is even more tentative than usual.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)11th Oct 2017 07:46U.S.

11 September 2017 Hurricane Reconstruction Will Lift Wages, Inflation, and the Deficit

As we reach our Sunday afternoon deadline, Hurricane Irma is pounding Florida's west coast with an intensity not seen since Andrew, in 1992.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)10th Sep 2017 18:06U.S.

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