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Under normal circumstances, the boost to consumption from the astonishing collapse in oil prices would act as a substantial--though not complete--offset to the hit to...
20th Apr 2020 20:20U.S.
The surge in July core retail sales was flattered by the impact of the Amazon Prime Event, which helped drive a 2.8% leap in sales at nonstore retailers.
15th Aug 2019 20:10U.S.
The chainstore sales numbers have been hard to read over the past year.
17th Jun 2019 20:20U.S.
The chance of a self-inflicted, unnecessary weakening in the economy this year, and perhaps even a recession, has increased markedly in the wake of the president's...
2nd Jun 2019 20:20U.S.
We have been puzzled in recent months by the sudden and substantial divergence between the Redbook chainstore sales numbers and the official data.
19th May 2019 20:20U.S.
Existing home sales peaked last February, and the news since then has been almost unremittingly gloomy.
21st Mar 2019 20:20U.S.
The advance international trade data for December were due for publication today, but the report probably won't appear.
28th Jan 2019 19:20U.S.
The plunge in oil prices in recent weeks is not a threat to the overall U.S. economic growth story in the near term--we have always expected growth to slow, but remain decent,...
18th Nov 2018 19:20U.S.
The imposition of 10% tariffs on $200B-worth of Chinese imports is not a serious threat either to U.S. economic growth--the tariffs amount to 0.1% of GDP--or inflation.
11th Oct 2018 20:20U.S.
We'd be surprised to see a repeat today of August's very modest 0.08% increase in the core CPI.
10th Oct 2018 20:10U.S.
The first estimate of retail sales growth in August was weaker than implied by the Redbook chainstore sales survey, but our first chart shows that the difference between the...
17th Sep 2018 20:20U.S.
The biggest single surprise in the second quarter GDP report was the unexpected $28B real-terms drop in inventories.
29th Jul 2018 18:10U.S.
To answer the question: Yes, growth could hit 5% in the second quarter.
13th May 2018 17:59U.S.
The wide spread in first quarter GDP growth "trackers"--which at this point are more model and assumption than actual data--is indicative of the uncertainty...
5th Mar 2018 16:30U.S.
We have learned over the years not to become too excited in the face of swings in the jobless claims numbers, even when the movement appears to persist for a month or two.
21st Feb 2018 16:20U.S.
As we reach our Sunday afternoon deadline, no deal has been reached to re-open the federal government.
21st Jan 2018 15:57U.S.
The sudden downshift in core inflation at the consumer level since March, clearly visible in the CPI and the PCE, and shown in our first chart, has been accompanied by a steady...
11th Dec 2017 05:26U.S.
Media reports suggest that the underlying trends in retailing--rising online sales, declining store sales and mall visits--continued unabated over the Thanksgiving weekend.
27th Nov 2017 06:20U.S.
Our forecast for a 0.3% increase in the September core PPI, slightly above the underlying trend, is even more tentative than usual.
11th Oct 2017 07:46U.S.
As we reach our Sunday afternoon deadline, Hurricane Irma is pounding Florida's west coast with an intensity not seen since Andrew, in 1992.
10th Sep 2017 18:06U.S.
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