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We're expecting the third straight outsized jump in the core CPI when the June report is released today.
We argued in the Monitor yesterday that much of the surge in survey-based measures of inflation expectations likely can be blamed on higher prices for food and gasoline.
A year or so from now, if the economy is beset by stubbornly high inflation, and the Fed is hammering asset prices by aggressively tightening policy in order to stem a further upward twist of the spiral, it's a fair bet that we'll look back to last week's data and say: "That's when they should have thrown up their hands, admitted they underestimated the inflation pressures triggered by unprecedented policy easing, and signaled a shift in policy."
The April retail sales and industrial production numbers today are wild cards, with the former especially hard to predict after the stimulus-fuelled surge in spending in March.
It's tempting to look at our first chart and think that the recovery in capex is hitting a wall.
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