U.S. Publications
Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
real spending
- Consumers are under short-term pressure from all sides, but the turn in spending will likely come soon.
- Payrolls will be a bit slower to respond to falling Covid cases than the real-time activity data...
- ...The January and February reports will both be scarred by Omicron, even as inflation rises further.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The enthusiasm among some FOMC members for a rapid balance sheet runoff is misplaced.
- If the FOMC wants to tighten more aggressively, faster rate hikes are less risky and send a clearer signal.
- We think the runoff will begin in the fall, slowly; market conditions will not allow the Fed to move quickly.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- December's grim retail sales report likely will be fol- lowed by further weakness in January...
- Spending has been hit, temporarily, by a one-two punch from early holiday shopping, then Omicron.
- The Fed is dead set on starting to tighten soon, but the upcoming data should dampen Q2 expectations.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- December's grim retail sales report likely will be followed by further weakness in January...
- Spending has been hit, temporarily, by a one-two punch from early holiday shopping, then Omicron.
- The Fed is dead set on starting to tighten soon, but the upcoming data should dampen Q2 expectations.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The Omicron hit likely will be visible in the retail sales data, but the core goods numbers should be OK.
- Industrial production probably was depressed by very warm December weather; expect a quick rebound.
- Car prices are beginning to moderate in the PPI, both at the manufacturer and dealer margin levels.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Covid cases look to be peaking, but ICU occupancy looks set for new pandemic highs.
- The situation will look much better a month from now, as cases drop and Paxlovid cuts hospitalizations.
- As Covid finally recedes, people will start to spend their accumulated savings.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Our final December jobs forecast is 850K; we expect the initial print to be revised up up to about 1M.
- Forecasting payrolls during Covid is a nightmare, but the risk to the 424K December consensus is clear.
- We now expect the first Fed hike in March, with two further hikes later in the year, and a steeper curve.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Covid cases still rocketing, but they likely will peak over the next couple weeks.
- The economic hit will be smaller and briefer than during the Delta wave, but it will be visible nonetheless.
- The December ISM survey likely will show that supply-chain pressures are easing, gradually
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Homebase data for December point to a a surge in payrolls; they were right about the soft November.
- Omicron is a serious threat to job growth early in the New Year; spending on services will drop for a time.
- Real-time data aren't rolling over yet, but European experience sends a very clear warning.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
Core PPI inflation has further to rise, but it should start to fall in January.
The details of the NFIB survey are more important than the headline index...
...Look out for strength in capex plans, and a modest rise in selling prices, lifted by gas prices.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The debt ceiling deal means that net Treasury issu- ance is set to rebound, just as the Fed steps back.
- Wholesalers are rapidly rebuilding their inventory, but they have a long way to go.
- Jobless claims will be seasonally afflicted until late January, but we look for a dip today.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Most of the variation in GDP growth since Covid has been due to wild swings in domestic demand...
- ...But net foreign trade looks set to make a meaningful contribution in Q4, alongside strong consumption.
- The continued increase in core capital goods orders signals faster future productivity growth.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The Omicron variant will soon reach the U.S., but its takeover will be slower than Delta's…
- …Assuming decent protection from vaccination and/or prior infection; that's not yet clear.
- If Omicron spreads quickly but causes less severe disease, it will not trigger a stall in the recovery
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Core retail sales are rising at a solid pace; a strong holiday season is a decent bet...
- ...But a sustained rebound in spending on services is still the missing link in the recovery story.
- Mortgage demand continues to rise steadily; home sales and housing construction follow.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- If the Fed's transitory view is to be proved correct, wage growth has to slow, so participation has to rise.
- Productivity growth has to rise too, and global supply chain pressures have to fade.
- These are all reasonable bets, but nothing is certain, and inflation will rise much further in the near-term.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- October's leap in the core CPI will be followed by a run of further hefty increases...
- ...Core inflation is likely to blast through 6% early next year, posing a serious challenge to the Fed.
- Chair Powell wants to stick to "transitory", but he needs to see labor participation surging, and fast.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Small businesses' sentiment has been hit hard by Delta; is a rebound now underway?
- The NFIB signals continued labor market tightness but suggests inflation will fall next year.
- Brace for upside risk in the October PPI; the September plunge in airline fares was a one-time event.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Chair Powell is sticking to "transitory", though it will take longer for inflation to fall than previously hoped.
- The Fed still is not talking about higher rates, but tapering could be accelerated if necessary.
- Productivity likely dropped sharply in Q3, but it will rebound in Q4 and the outlook is very favorable.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The drop in Covid cases has stalled, thanks to a few western states; the downturn should resume soon.
- Manufacturing orders wobbling as supply chain pressures bite harder; no relief yet in sight.
- New auto sales might finally have hit bottom, or not; forecasts for October are all over the map.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The Fed faces serious challenges to the "transitory" story over the next few months...
- ...On top of surging wages, the core CPI is set to surge, and economic growth is likely to rebound.
- With the Fed set to taper, just as issuance rebounds after the debt ceiling is fixed, expect yields to jump.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
