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We expect both the infrastructure and social spending bills to pass, but the path is winding and arduous.
Downside risk for July durable goods orders today, thanks to the aircraft component; the core will be fine.
New home inventory is rocketing, so the rate of increase of prices is set to plummet.
Downside risk for headline June durable goods does not change the strong core picture.
Capital spending looks set to rise for some time yet, beginning to reverse the post-2008 disaster.
New home sales are now almost in line with mortgage demand, but price gains are set to slow very sharply
Some of the near-real-time data are flattening; don't worry, it had to happen, and some will re-accelerate.
The recovery is still on track, though we'll be much happier once clarity emerges in the labor market.
We see hefty downside risk to June new home sales; forecasts ignore the plunge in mortgage demand.
The payroll survey was conducted last week; anyone who did any paid work in the pay period—that is, the week, two weeks, or month—which included Monday, July 12, counts as employed.
What should we make of the news that manufacturing production fell outright in June—just—but that the Empire State manufacturing index has rocketed to a record high?
In one line: Hammered by the auto sector, again.
The Dallas Fed last week published a short blog post—seehere—focused on the predictive power of their trimmed mean PCE inflation measure.
We're not sure what to make of the 692K increase in the ADP measure of private payrolls, reported yesterday.
Question: What's the fastest known mechanism for getting oil out of the ground?
In one line: Recovery continues, but at a slower pace.
We have to talk about Covid again, unfortunately. The downward trend in U.S. cases appears to be over, for now, following a 94% drop from the January peak.
We still look for a 550K May headline payroll print today, with private payrolls up 500K, despite the 978K ADP reading yesterday.
ADP hugely overstated the official payroll number in April, compounding the shock in markets from the 266K headline print, with private payrolls up only 218K.
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