Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a full list of our U.S. Publications.

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9 Dec 2020 Will Mortgage Demand Surge Again Post-Covid?

Most of the time, we don't pay too much attention to the weekly mortgage applications numbers from the Mortgage Bankers Association, because the noise-to- signal ratio is too...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)8th Dec 2020 18:20U.S.

8 Dec 2020 Small Business Sentiment Set to Drop, but Details are More Important

Small business owners--at least, those who are members of the NFIB and respond to its monthly survey--were delighted by the election of President Trump in November 2016.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)7th Dec 2020 18:20U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Industrial Production, October 2020

In one line: Recovery continues, but can it last?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)17th Nov 2020 09:55U.S.

26 Oct 2020 The Manufacturing Recovery Can Continue as Goods Spending Rises

Back in the olden days, we argued that shifts in the global manufacturing cycle often originated in China, and then fed into the U.S. and European data with a lag of one-to-three...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)25th Oct 2020 19:10U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Industrial Production, September 2020

In one line: Disappointing, but not the start of a downward trend.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)16th Oct 2020 11:30U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Industrial Production, August 2020

In one line: The rebound contiunues, but at a slowing pace.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)15th Sep 2020 11:10U.S.

15 Sept 2020 The Manufacturing Sector is Losing Steam, but Autos have Further to go

Momentum in the rebound in economic activity has faded over the past couple months, housing and auto sales aside.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)14th Sep 2020 19:20U.S.

2 Sep 2020 Downside for Risk for ADP if the August Data Follow Homebase

We're expecting the first look at August employment, in the form of today's ADP report, to fall short of the 1,000K consensus forecast; we look for 500K.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)1st Sep 2020 19:20U.S.

5 Aug 2020 Upside Risk for ADP Today, but the Uncertainty is Great

The advance indicators of July payrolls are wildly contradictory, so you should be prepared for anything from a consensus-busting jump to a renewed outright drop, in both...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)4th Aug 2020 19:10U.S.

4 Aug 2020 Manufacturing is Recovering, but it has not Recovered

Under normal circumstances, sustained ISM manufacturing readings around the July level, 54.2, would be consistent with GDP growth of about 2% year-over-year.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)3rd Aug 2020 19:20U.S.

30 July 2020 No Changes Yet from the Fed, but the Door is Open for the Fall

The Fed made no changes to policy yesterday, as was almost universally expected.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)29th Jul 2020 19:10U.S.

27 July 2020 Economic Momentum has Stalled, GDP Could Easily Fall in August

With just five days of July remaining, it seems likely that the trends in most of the key near-real-time indicators will end the month close to the levels seen at the end of June.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)26th Jul 2020 19:20U.S.

23 July 2020 Upside Risk for Initial Jobless Claims Today, Amid Substantial Uncertainty

We need to start today with a word of warning about today's initial jobless claims, where the risk to the consensus seems mostly to be to the upside.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)22nd Jul 2020 19:10U.S.

16 July 2020 State Initial Claims Likely Down Again, but Lookout for PUA Claims

The weekly initial jobless claims numbers have been a useful proxy for the real-time performance of the economy since Covid-19 struck.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)15th Jul 2020 19:10U.S.

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