Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

nfib survey

3 Dec 2021 Payroll Growth Still Struggling to Regain pre-Delta Momentum

  • Job growth has strengthened from the summer lows, but seems not yet to be back to the pre-Delta pace.
  • Participation is the key variable for the Fed; it has to rise, soon, in order to constrain wage gains.
  • Hourly earnings growth in November likely was limit- ed by a calendar quirk; expect stronger in December.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

2 Dec 2021 ADP Forces a Payroll Forecast Cut, but Margins of Error are Wide

  • We now look for a 550K headline payroll print tomor- row, in the wake of the disappointing ADP report.
  • The ISM manufacturing survey confirms that supply-chain pressures are easing, albeit slowly.
  • Jobless claims likely rebounded strongly in Thanks- giving week as a huge seasonal quirk reversed.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

18 Nov 2021 The Fed has Three Conditions for Rate Hikes, One is Still Some Way Off

  • The Fed wants to reach maximum employment be- fore raising rates; it's still a long way off...
  • ...Fully recovering the ground lost during Covid likely will take almost a year.
  • The November Philly Fed likely will add to evidence suggesting peak supply chain pressure has passed.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 Nov 2021 Homebase Jobs Look Soft for November, Official Data Likely Better

  • The initial Homebase jobs data for the November payroll survey week look disconcertingly soft...
  • ...But the data always are revised up, and the revisions are consistent; we look for 800K private jobs.
  • October retail sales and industrial production num- bers today likely will confirm a solid start to Q4.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

US Datanote: Empire State Survey, November 2021

  • In one line: Demand still strong; supply chain pressures peaking?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

US Datanote: NFIB Survey, October 2021

  • In one line: Still Delta-depressed, but capex plans strengthening.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

9 Nov 2021 Is Small Business Sentiment Rebounding as Delta Cases Fall?

  • Small businesses' sentiment has been hit hard by Delta; is a rebound now underway?
  • The NFIB signals continued labor market tightness but suggests inflation will fall next year.
  • Brace for upside risk in the October PPI; the September plunge in airline fares was a one-time event.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

8 Nov 2021 Payroll Momentum Building as the Economy Shakes off the Delta Blues

  • Momentum is building in payrolls; the next few months should see 1M-plus gains.
  • Substantially faster payroll growth requires a clear increase in participation; that's a decent bet.
  • A rebalancing of labor demand and supply would reduce the upward pressure on wage growth.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

5 Nov 2021 October Job Gains Still Constrained by Delta, but Better News is Coming

  • A combination of Homebase and ADP signals a 525K payroll print for October...
  • ...The rebound in activity as Delta cases fell came too late to drive a bigger gain; November will be better.
  • Rapid wage gains likely continued last month, but the real test will come when participation rebounds.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

3 Nov 2021 Tapering is Coming, but what will Chair Powell Say About Inflation

  • The tapering announcement today is a done deal; what Chair Powell says about inflation matters more.
  • Expect a defense of the transitory arguments, but with a warning of hefty near-term upside risk.
  • Homebase data point to a third straight disappointing payroll print, thanks to the Delta Covid wave.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

21 Oct 2021 Layoffs are Set to Hit New Lows as the Economy Rebounds After Delta

  • The recent pace of decline in initial jobless claims can't be sustained, but they should keep falling.
  • As the economy re-accelerates post-Delta, labor de- mand will rise and layoffs will hit new lows.
  • Home sales likely rose strongly in September, but the impact of Hurricane Ida is a wild card.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

12 Oct 2021 Delta Squeezed Payrolls in September, Again

  • September job gains fell short of the pace implied by Homebase, but October likely will be much better.
  • Wage pressures continue to build, but labor supply should rebound strongly in Q4.
  • Job openings likely hit yet another record high in August, but the Delta effect is uncertain.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

8 Oct 2021 September Payrolls Likely Better than August, but Still Hurt by Delta

  • Homebase data for the payroll survey week point to a 600K increase in September.
  • It's too soon to expect to see big changes in participation due to benefit expiration and school reopening
  • As the economy rebounds from Delta, rising partici- pation will facilitate a run of big payroll gains.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

US Datanote: U.S ISM Manufacturing Survey, September 2021

  • In one line: Solid orders growth, despite China slowdown and supply-chain problems.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 Oct 2021 Is China's Manufacturing Weakness Hitting the U.S.

  • China's manufacturing slowdown is not helpful to the U.S., but it is a long way from a hammer-blow.
  • Consumers' spending likely rose a bit in August, but September won't be great; Q4 should be much better.
  • The core PCE spike is over, but airline fares will lift the August reading relative to the core CPI.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

29 Sept 2021 A Government Shutdown Thursday Likely will be Averted, Just

  • We expect a government shutdown will be averted by a continuing resolution, with no debt ceiling fix.
  • Activity in the discretionary consumer services sector is beginning to re-rebound as Delta cases plunge.
  • Home sales are nudging back up; pending sales likely rose in August, outperforming the mortgage data.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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