Pantheon Macroeconomics

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25 Jan 2021 Could a Margin Spike Translate into Sustained Inflation? Watch Wages

Could a Margin Spike Translate into Sustained Inflation? Watch Wages

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)24th Jan 2021 18:20U.S.

8 Dec 2020 Small Business Sentiment Set to Drop, but Details are More Important

Small business owners--at least, those who are members of the NFIB and respond to its monthly survey--were delighted by the election of President Trump in November 2016.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)7th Dec 2020 18:20U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. NFIB Survey, October 2020

In one line: Solid, but likely to drop in November and December.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)10th Nov 2020 11:00U.S.

10 Nov 2020 The Post-Covid Era is no Longer Just a Dream, but it's Not Here Yet

Pfizer's announcement yesterday provided the answer to the--rhetorical--question we've been asking for months: Do you want to be short equities the day we learn...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)9th Nov 2020 16:40U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. NFIB Survey, August 2020

In one line: The small business sector is still depressed, despite the headline uptick.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)8th Sep 2020 09:31U.S.

14 July 2020 The Downdraft in the Core CPI Likely is Over, but Risks Remain

We have no argument with the FOMC's view that the Covid crisis is a disinflationary event, but the run of three straight outright month-to-month declines in the core CPI...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)13th Jul 2020 19:20U.S.

8 July 2020 Watch Bank Lending, a Sustained Drop Would Trigger More QE

The stock of bank lending to businesses is on course to fall in June, after a modest increase in May and huge jumps in March and April.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)7th Jul 2020 19:20U.S.

13 May 2020 Core Inflation has Further to Fall, but Sustained Deflation is Unlikely

The record 0.4% drop in the core CPI in April would have looked even worse had it not been for favorable rounding; it was just 0.002% away from printing at -0.5%.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)12th May 2020 19:20U.S.

US Datanote: NFIB Small Business Survey, April

In one line: Details are wose than the consensus-beating headline.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)12th May 2020 06:35U.S.

12 May 2020 Downside Risk to April CPI from Rent, Apparel, Airline Fares, Lodging, Autos

The 0.1% dip in the core CPI in March was the first outright decline in three years, but we expect another-- and bigger--decline in today's April numbers.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)11th May 2020 19:20U.S.

11 May 2020 The Labor Market is Worse than April's Headlines Suggest

Hideous though the official April payroll numbers were, the chances are that they'll be revised down.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)10th May 2020 19:20U.S.

10 Mar 2020 Oil Sector Capex is Set to Collapse, Outweighing Consumers' Gain

The collapse in oil prices was the immediate trigger for the 7.6% plunge in the S&P 500 yesterday, but the underlying reason is the Covid-19 epidemic.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)9th Mar 2020 19:20U.S.

13 Feb 2020 Core CPI Likely Back on Trend, Risks in Rent and Healthcare Persist

The underlying trend in the core CPI is rising by just under 0.2% per month, so that has to be the starting point for our January forecast.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)12th Feb 2020 18:10U.S.

US Datanote: NFIB Small Business Survey, January

In one line: Rising stock prices lift small business sentiment; labor market still tight.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)11th Feb 2020 07:39U.S.

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