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The Dallas Fed last week published a short blog post--seehere--focused on the predictive power of their trimmed mean PCE inflation measure.
The 12% GDP growth we had hoped to see in the second quarter now looks unlikely; we've cut our estimate to an annualized rate of 9 1/2%
The FOMC statement yesterday changed only trivially from April, just noting that the Covid picture is improving, easing the pressure on the economy, and that inflation is no...
First, an apology for breaking our two-page rule; we have a lot of ground to cover today. So, to business. Tapering is going to happen over the next few months; the only...
The May CPI is released tomorrow, but interest in the numbers is so high that we want to set out our forecast today, ahead of the rush.
April Payrolls Likely Rose at a Solid Pace, but Bigger Gains are Coming
B117 is Driving up New Covid Cases, but the Recovery is not Cancelle
Manufacturing/Services Gap Sticks as Economy Tracks Sideways
Watch Small Firms' Selling Prices for Clues to Post-Covid Inflation
In the absence of hints from senior Fed officials that a major change to the QE program is imminent, we would be surprised today if the Fed increases the pace of purchases from...
We were not surprised by the soft November employment numbers, unfortunately, because job growth was close to the pace implied by the Homebase small business employment data.
The release yesterday of a $908B Covid relief bill, put together by a bipartisan group of senators, is good news.
The impending appointment of ex-Fed Chair Yellen as Treasury Secretary is to be welcomed--a safer pair of hands is hard to imagine--but it does not change our view that...
October payrolls surprised us to the upside, prompting a wave of chatter from the commentariat to the effect that the labor market is healing. Well, it was healing, in the week...
As we reach our deadline at 4pm Eastern, definitive results are not yet available for Nevada, Georgia or Pennsylvania, any one of which would push Joe Biden over the 270 Electoral...
It's entirely possible that Donald Trump will be re-elected today, but it is not very likely. The FiveThirtyEight model--the only one to give Mr. Trump much chance in...
As we reach our deadline on Tuesday afternoon, Eastern time, no agreement has been reached between Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and House Speaker Pelosi on the next Covid relief...
As we reach our deadline Monday afternoon, the Columbus Day long weekend has brought no progress on the fiscal front.
The jobless claims numbers today are a bit of a wild card.
The initial stock market reaction to news of President Trump's Covid test never made much sense. Sure, markets do not like uncertainty, but in a country where the election is...
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