Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

ireland Trade

30 Nov 2021 Net Foreign Trade is Set to Augment Strong Domestic Demand in Q4

  • Most of the variation in GDP growth since Covid has been due to wild swings in domestic demand...
  • ...But net foreign trade looks set to make a meaningful contribution in Q4, alongside strong consumption.
  • The continued increase in core capital goods orders signals faster future productivity growth.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Orders/Claims/Trade, October

  • In one line: Strong core orders; claims depressed by seasonal quirk; exports soaring.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

24 Nov 2021 Pre-Holiday Data Wave Headlines will be Mixed, Trends Mostly Good

  • Jobless claims look set to plunge to a new, though temporary, pandemic low.
  • Downside risk for headline durable goods orders, but core capex orders are what matter.
  • October's core PCE deflator likely rose by less than the core CPI, but further big gains are coming.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

9 Nov 2021 Is Small Business Sentiment Rebounding as Delta Cases Fall?

  • Small businesses' sentiment has been hit hard by Delta; is a rebound now underway?
  • The NFIB signals continued labor market tightness but suggests inflation will fall next year.
  • Brace for upside risk in the October PPI; the September plunge in airline fares was a one-time event.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Durable Goods Orders & Advance Goods Trade, September 2021

  • In one line: Core capex orders still rising strongly; trade hit by the lagged effect of lower summer oil prices

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

28 Oct 2021 Consumption Held Back Q3 GDP Growth; Blame Delta, and Chips

  • GDP growth likely slowed to just 23⁄4%, constrained by temporarily stalled consumption.
  • If growth is far from the consensus, 2.6%, look first at the inventory component, which is a wild card.
  • GDP remains below the level implied by the pre-Covid trend, but the gap will close by next spring.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

20 Oct 2021 Does the Pause in Globalization Threaten U.S. Inflation Post-Covid?

  • Unit labor costs are key to the U.S. inflation story, but global factors matter too...
  • ...If China is no longer a source of disinflation pressure, the Fed will have less room for labor cost maneuver.
  • Ignore the decline in September housing construc- tion; it's much more noise than signal.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Advance Trade in Goods, August 2021

  • In one line: The trend in the goods deficit is well above the pre-Covid level, but steady.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

28 Sept 2021 Crunch Time Approaches as Dem Leaders Seek Deal by Thursday

  • Fiscal policy for next year could be a great deal clearer by the end of this week...
  • ...The "tightening" as the deficit drops in fiscal 2022 is not what it seems; the private sector is cash-rich..
  • The trade deficit likely dropped sharply in August; imports were slowed by China's port closure.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

10 Sept 2021 Core PPI Inflation is Still Rising, but Monthly Gains Look Set to Slow

  • Core PPI inflation likely hit a new high in August, but the month-to-month increases are set to slow.
  • Much of the recent surge has been due to widening margins, especially in autos; this can't last forever.
  • The drop in jobless claims reported yesterday is noise, not signal, and it says nothing about payrolls.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Personal Income, July 2021; Advance Goods Trade, July 2021

  • In one line: Consumption temporarily under pressure as stimulus hit fades and Delta strikes.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

30 July 2021 Brace for Another Outsized Jump in Employment Costs

Another outsized increase in the ECI measure of wages would be awkward…

…But the Fed will argue that increased labor supply in the fall will prevent inflationary wage gains.

Q2 GDP growth was depressed by a wild swing in inventories; expect a rebound in Q3.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

29 July 2021 Progress Made, but not "Sufficient Further Progress", Yet

Tapering is inching closer, but talk of rate hikes is de-ferred unless and until labor market signals flash red.

The economy likely expanded at an 8.0% rate in Q2, led by consumption and business investment.

Jobless claims look set to disappoint again today, and look for a big drop in pending home sales..

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

30 June 2021 Upside Risk for the June ADP, but it Likely will Overstate Official Payrolls

We see substantial upside risk to the June ADP employment reading today, but we think the data will overstate the official private payroll number, for a third straight month. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

10 May 2021 April Payrolls Constrained by Lack of Supply, not Demand; Why

Let's start the post-mortem with what we know: The disappointing April payroll numbers were not depressed by a lack of labor demand.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

3 May 2021 What's Driving ECI Wages, Technicalities, or Real Pressures

It's possible that the surge in wages reported in the first quarter employment costs index will prove benign.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence