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Another outsized increase in the ECI measure of wages would be awkward…
…But the Fed will argue that increased labor supply in the fall will prevent inflationary wage gains.
Q2 GDP growth was depressed by a wild swing in inventories; expect a rebound in Q3.
Tapering is inching closer, but talk of rate hikes is de-ferred unless and until labor market signals flash red.
The economy likely expanded at an 8.0% rate in Q2, led by consumption and business investment.
Jobless claims look set to disappoint again today, and look for a big drop in pending home sales..
In one line: The core deficit has peaked.
We see substantial upside risk to the June ADP employment reading today, but we think the data will overstate the official private payroll number, for a third straight month.
In one line: Core PCE inflation at a 29-year high won’t faze the Fed, yet.
Let's start the post-mortem with what we know: The disappointing April payroll numbers were not depressed by a lack of labor demand.
It's possible that the surge in wages reported in the first quarter employment costs index will prove benign.
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