Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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inventory

29 June 2022 Does QT Mean that People Cannot Spend Some of the Savings Stock?

QT and higher rates will trigger a slowdown in loan growth and bank deposit growth...

...But the $3.5T in excess household deposits is real, and it can be spent, if people so choose.

Net foreign trade looks set to add about one percent- age point to Q2 GDP growth, and maybe more in Q3.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

8 June 2022 Net Trade is the Biggest Upside Risk to Q2 GDP Growth

The weakness of the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast for Q2 is concentrated in the net trade component...

...The model expects imports to remain hugely elevated, but that’s unlikely as inventory-building slows.

The modest downshift in consumer credit growth in April won’t last, given the continued rise in gas prices.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 June 2022 Real-Time Data Signal Continued Strength in Consumer Activity

As Memorial Day distortions fade, we see few signs that consumers are scaling back spending.

The surge in retail and wholesale inventory-building is coming to an end, pushing down imports.

Spiking consumer credit is not necessarily a sign of broad financial distress due to soaring gas prices.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Advance Goods Trade, April

Imports drop as the pace of inventory rebuilding slows; trade will add to Q2 GDP growth

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

22 Mar 2022 Inventories are the Wild Card for Q1 Growth, a Big Drag is Likely

  • A big drag from inventories means we have pulled down our Q1 GDP forecast to zero…
  • …Growth likely will rebound strongly in the second quarter, because final demand looks solid.
  • Chainstore sales growth is slowing rapidly, but mostly—perhaps entirely—due to adverse base effects.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Advance Trade/Inventories, January

In one line: Import flood continues; auto inventory still rising, but less quickly.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

18 Feb 2022 A Substantial Housing Slowdown is Just a Matter of Time

  • Existing home sales probably fell in January, but this it not the start of the hit from higher rates.
  • The Philly Fed suggests that manufacturing growth is slowing, and supply pressures are easing.
  • The index of leading indicators is set to surprise massively to the downside today, thanks to Omicron.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 Feb 2022 No Decisions Made at the January FOMC, Opinions Appear Split

  • The FOMC is divided on the pace and timing of the coming policy tightening.
  • The huge rebound in January retail sales will lift Q1 growth forecasts, but uncertainty still rules.
  • Housing demand is softening, pushing down the leading components in the NAHB survey.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

9 Feb 2022 Mortgage Demand is Starting to Soften in the Face of Higher Rates

  • Higher mortgage rates are starting to depress demand; home sales will fall through mid-year, at least.
  • Falling demand and rising inventory will slow price gains and, eventually, dampen rent pressures.
  • The NFIB survey hints that the labor market might be easing a bit, at the margin.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

27 Jan 2022 A March Hike but no Balance Sheet Decisions yet, all Options Open

  • Rates will rise in March, but Powell suggests no bal- ance sheet run-off announcement until May...
  • ...Even May is not certain, given the likelihood of a run of very weak activity data between now and then.
  • Q4 GDP growth enjoyed a last-minute boost from surging December inventories, upside risk today.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Advance Trade and Inventories, December

In one line: Inventory surge will boost Q4 GDP forecasts, despite record deficit

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

21 Jan 2022 Housing Demand is Set to Weaken as Higher Mortgage Rates Bite

  • The housing story in the second half of last year, with demand rising, and inventory low, is about to change.
  • Higher mortgage rates will reduce the number of potential buyers, and sellers will have less power.
  • The surge in jobless claims last week likely reflects the Omicron hit; it will be short, but just how short?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Existing Home Sales, December

In one line: The H2 sales surge is over, but inventory at a new record low

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

12 Jan 2022 Upside Risks in the December Core CPI, Headline Rate to Peak

  • Upside risk to the December core CPI, mostly from vehicle prices, airline fares, and hotel room rates.
  • Headline inflation likely rose above 7%, but this should be the peak.
  • Small firms sentiment is yet to reflect the Omicron hit, or the weakening in the stock market.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

23 Dec 2021 Core PCE Inflation Rose Again in November, Peaking in February

  • Core PCE probably hit a 32-year high in November, but it has further to rise before peaking in February.
  • Core capital goods orders are rising, but higher inflation is eating into the gains in real terms.
  • Upside risk for November new home sales, given the sustained surge in mortgage applications.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

22 Dec 2021 Omicron Cases Soaring, but Hospitalizations to be Contained?

  • U.S. Covid cases are rocketing, but we are hopeful that pressure on hospitals will be contained.
  • Omicron seems to hospitalize fewer people, and for much less time, than Delta.
  • Existing home sales and prices probably jumped again in November; inventory still very tight.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 Dec 2021 Headline Inflation Close to Peaking; the Core will Rise Much Further

  • Headline inflation is unlikely to rise much further, but the core rate still some way to climb.
  • Faster rent inflation is now well-established, and upward pressure elsewhere is yet to peak.
  • A steep drop inflation from next spring remains a good bet, but the Fed needs insurance.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

10 Dec 2021 Upside Risks Abound for November Inflation, No Relief Until Q2

  • Threats to rents, vehicle prices, airline fares and hotel room rates mean upside core CPI risk today.
  • The next few months will see core inflation rise towards 7%; the Fed's pivot is a pre-emptive strike.
  • It's still reasonable to expect inflation to fall very sharply next year, but the Fed can't be certain.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

9 Dec 2021 Debt Ceiling Deal Means More Net Issuance, as the Fed Tapers Faster

  • The debt ceiling deal means that net Treasury issu- ance is set to rebound, just as the Fed steps back.
  • Wholesalers are rapidly rebuilding their inventory, but they have a long way to go.
  • Jobless claims will be seasonally afflicted until late January, but we look for a dip today.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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