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QT and higher rates will trigger a slowdown in loan growth and bank deposit growth...
...But the $3.5T in excess household deposits is real, and it can be spent, if people so choose.
Net foreign trade looks set to add about one percent- age point to Q2 GDP growth, and maybe more in Q3.
The weakness of the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast for Q2 is concentrated in the net trade component...
...The model expects imports to remain hugely elevated, but that’s unlikely as inventory-building slows.
The modest downshift in consumer credit growth in April won’t last, given the continued rise in gas prices.
As Memorial Day distortions fade, we see few signs that consumers are scaling back spending.
The surge in retail and wholesale inventory-building is coming to an end, pushing down imports.
Spiking consumer credit is not necessarily a sign of broad financial distress due to soaring gas prices.
Imports drop as the pace of inventory rebuilding slows; trade will add to Q2 GDP growth
In one line: Import flood continues; auto inventory still rising, but less quickly.
In one line: Inventory surge will boost Q4 GDP forecasts, despite record deficit
In one line: The H2 sales surge is over, but inventory at a new record low
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