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Another outsized increase in the ECI measure of wages would be awkward…
…But the Fed will argue that increased labor supply in the fall will prevent inflationary wage gains.
Q2 GDP growth was depressed by a wild swing in inventories; expect a rebound in Q3.
Tapering is inching closer, but talk of rate hikes is de-ferred unless and until labor market signals flash red.
The economy likely expanded at an 8.0% rate in Q2, led by consumption and business investment.
Jobless claims look set to disappoint again today, and look for a big drop in pending home sales..
In one line: The core deficit has peaked.
We see substantial upside risk to the June ADP employment reading today, but we think the data will overstate the official private payroll number, for a third straight month.
In one line: Core PCE inflation at a 29-year high won’t faze the Fed, yet.
Let's start the post-mortem with what we know: The disappointing April payroll numbers were not depressed by a lack of labor demand.
It's possible that the surge in wages reported in the first quarter employment costs index will prove benign.
President Biden's $1.8T American Families Plan, together with the $2.3T infrastructure plan, and the $1.9T Covid relief bill, amount to nothing less than attempt to push the United States towards a European-style social democratic model.
The FOMC made no policy changes yesterday and the statement was little different to the March note.
In one line: The rising deficit reflects the huge U.S. policy response to Covid.
The wave of data over the past couple weeks means we can be reasonably confident now that first quarter GDP growth was around 6%.
In one line: Weather and stimulus distortions abound, but keep an eye on healthcare inflation, especially hospitals.
It's entirely reasonable to think that business owners and managers were happy to see the passage of the American Rescue Plan Act, signed into law by President Biden on March 11.
In one line: Stimulus hits the income, spending and saving data; one-time spike lift the core deflator.
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