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Manufacturing/Services Gap Sticks as Economy Tracks Sideways
14th Jan 2021 18:20U.S.
This is the final U.S. Monitor for 2020, a year we'll be thrilled to leave behind.
23rd Dec 2020 18:20U.S.
In the absence of hints from senior Fed officials that a major change to the QE program is imminent, we would be surprised today if the Fed increases the pace of purchases from...
15th Dec 2020 16:20U.S.
Before the Covid pandemic struck, the mix-adjusted measure of wages and salaries in the employment costs index was trending up by about 3.0% year-over-year.
29th Oct 2020 19:10U.S.
The best way to answer the perennially vexed question of what's happening to home prices is to take a deep breath and cite a range, given that the four main measures of prices...
27th Oct 2020 19:10U.S.
We're expecting to learn today that shipments of core capital goods jumped at a 33% annualized rate in the third quarter, a record increase, and more than reversing the 19.7%...
26th Oct 2020 19:10U.S.
Back in the olden days, we argued that shifts in the global manufacturing cycle often originated in China, and then fed into the U.S. and European data with a lag of one-to-three...
25th Oct 2020 19:10U.S.
The third quarter ended with a bit of a bang for retailers, with sales rising strongly, even in the woebegone department store sector. The apparent loss of momentum in July and...
18th Oct 2020 19:20U.S.
Our working assumption now is that Congress will not pass a substantial Covid relief bill until next year, probably in February.
23rd Sep 2020 19:10U.S.
It's not clear if the first FOMC meeting since the release of the Fed's new Monetary Policy Strategy will bring any real shift in policy, though we think it unlikely that...
15th Sep 2020 19:20U.S.
We have revised up our third quarter GDP forecast to 25% from 15%, in the wake of last week's data. Consumers' spending is on course to rise by 36.6% if July's level...
30th Aug 2020 19:10U.S.
The final Monitor before our summer break is characterized by great uncertainty.
6th Aug 2020 19:10U.S.
Our hopes of another solid increase in payrolls in July were severely dented by yesterday's ADP report, showing that private payrolls rose only 167K in July.
5th Aug 2020 19:10U.S.
The advance indicators of July payrolls are wildly contradictory, so you should be prepared for anything from a consensus-busting jump to a renewed outright drop, in both...
4th Aug 2020 19:10U.S.
Under normal circumstances, sustained ISM manufacturing readings around the July level, 54.2, would be consistent with GDP growth of about 2% year-over-year.
3rd Aug 2020 19:20U.S.
The stock market did not like the renewed closure of bars in Texas and Florida, announced Friday morning.
28th Jun 2020 19:20U.S.
The 0.1% dip in the core CPI in March was the first outright decline in three years, but we expect another-- and bigger--decline in today's April numbers.
11th May 2020 19:20U.S.
Hideous though the official April payroll numbers were, the chances are that they'll be revised down.
10th May 2020 19:20U.S.
We understand the desire of investors and individuals to see the economy re-opening as soon as possible, but the data right now support only a limited opening in some parts of the...
19th Apr 2020 19:20U.S.
Today brings a wave of data which will help analysts narrow their estimates for first quarter GDP growth, and will offer some clues, albeit limited, about the early part of the...
14th Apr 2020 19:10U.S.
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