Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

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forecast

24 Dec 2020 Look Behind the Headlines for the Real Stories in the Latest Data

This is the final U.S. Monitor for 2020, a year we'll be thrilled to leave behind.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)23rd Dec 2020 18:20U.S.

16 Dec 2020 QE Curve Extension is a Decent Bet Today, Increased Purchases in '21

In the absence of hints from senior Fed officials that a major change to the QE program is imminent, we would be surprised today if the Fed increases the pace of purchases from...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)15th Dec 2020 16:20U.S.

30 Oct 2020 What's Happening to Wages?

Before the Covid pandemic struck, the mix-adjusted measure of wages and salaries in the employment costs index was trending up by about 3.0% year-over-year.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)29th Oct 2020 19:10U.S.

28 Oct 2020 What's Really Happening to Home Prices--and What's Coming Next

The best way to answer the perennially vexed question of what's happening to home prices is to take a deep breath and cite a range, given that the four main measures of prices...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)27th Oct 2020 19:10U.S.

27 Oct 2020 Capex Orders and Shipments Still Rising, but Momentum is Easing

We're expecting to learn today that shipments of core capital goods jumped at a 33% annualized rate in the third quarter, a record increase, and more than reversing the 19.7%...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)26th Oct 2020 19:10U.S.

26 Oct 2020 The Manufacturing Recovery Can Continue as Goods Spending Rises

Back in the olden days, we argued that shifts in the global manufacturing cycle often originated in China, and then fed into the U.S. and European data with a lag of one-to-three...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)25th Oct 2020 19:10U.S.

19 Oct 2020 The Big Threat to Q4 Consumption is Covid, not Consumers' Cashflow

The third quarter ended with a bit of a bang for retailers, with sales rising strongly, even in the woebegone department store sector. The apparent loss of momentum in July and...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)18th Oct 2020 19:20U.S.

24 Sept 2020 With Fiscal Relief Hopes Fading Q4 GDP Growth is Set to Slow Sharply

Our working assumption now is that Congress will not pass a substantial Covid relief bill until next year, probably in February.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)23rd Sep 2020 19:10U.S.

16 Sept 2020 The Fed will Emphasize its Pursuit of Maximum Employment Today

It's not clear if the first FOMC meeting since the release of the Fed's new Monetary Policy Strategy will bring any real shift in policy, though we think it unlikely that...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)15th Sep 2020 19:20U.S.

31 Aug 2020 Q3 Consumption will Rocket, but Benefit Expiration Hit is Uncertain

We have revised up our third quarter GDP forecast to 25% from 15%, in the wake of last week's data. Consumers' spending is on course to rise by 36.6% if July's level...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)30th Aug 2020 19:10U.S.

7 Aug 2020 A Modest Rise in Payrolls Look Likely, but Big Risks in Both Directions

The final Monitor before our summer break is characterized by great uncertainty.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)6th Aug 2020 19:10U.S.

6 Aug 2020 ADP Signals Only a Modest Rise in July Payrolls, August will be Weaker

Our hopes of another solid increase in payrolls in July were severely dented by yesterday's ADP report, showing that private payrolls rose only 167K in July.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)5th Aug 2020 19:10U.S.

5 Aug 2020 Upside Risk for ADP Today, but the Uncertainty is Great

The advance indicators of July payrolls are wildly contradictory, so you should be prepared for anything from a consensus-busting jump to a renewed outright drop, in both...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)4th Aug 2020 19:10U.S.

4 Aug 2020 Manufacturing is Recovering, but it has not Recovered

Under normal circumstances, sustained ISM manufacturing readings around the July level, 54.2, would be consistent with GDP growth of about 2% year-over-year.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)3rd Aug 2020 19:20U.S.

29 June 2020 The Third Quarter Rebound is at Risk as the South Reimposes Restrictions

The stock market did not like the renewed closure of bars in Texas and Florida, announced Friday morning.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)28th Jun 2020 19:20U.S.

12 May 2020 Downside Risk to April CPI from Rent, Apparel, Airline Fares, Lodging, Autos

The 0.1% dip in the core CPI in March was the first outright decline in three years, but we expect another-- and bigger--decline in today's April numbers.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)11th May 2020 19:20U.S.

11 May 2020 The Labor Market is Worse than April's Headlines Suggest

Hideous though the official April payroll numbers were, the chances are that they'll be revised down.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)10th May 2020 19:20U.S.

20 Apr 2020 Re-opening Dangers Vary Across the U.S., but Nowhere is Risk-Free

We understand the desire of investors and individuals to see the economy re-opening as soon as possible, but the data right now support only a limited opening in some parts of the...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)19th Apr 2020 19:20U.S.

15 Apr 2020 Brace for Grim March Retail Sales and IP Reports, with Worse to Come

Today brings a wave of data which will help analysts narrow their estimates for first quarter GDP growth, and will offer some clues, albeit limited, about the early part of the...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)14th Apr 2020 19:10U.S.

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