Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

financial system

21 Sept 2021 Productivity Prospects Revisited: Strong Capex Kicks-in Quickly

  • Faster growth in capex will boost productivity quickly, long before the capital stock is fully rebuilt.
  • A re-run of the late 90s productivity boom is a high bar, but even a modest gain would make a difference.
  • Homebuilders like the Delta-driven uptick in demand, but a return to the winter peak is not in the cards.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 Sept 2021 Faster Productivity Growth Would Fix Almost Everything; Odds are Good

  • The current inflation spike can only become a spiral if unit labor costs accelerate..
  • ...Faster productivity growth can prevent that, and the signs are that business capex is stepping up.
  • Stronger productivity growth would prevent runaway inflation but lift r-star; the Fed would still have to hike.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

23 July 2021 Don't Worry About the Contraction in C&I Lending, this is not 2008 Redux

A defining feature of the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis was a sustained decline in the stock of bank lending to businesses.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 July 2021 No Blink from Chair Powell, Despite Another Surge in the CPI

Chair Powell made it clear yesterday that the Fed's leadership is sticking to its view that the reopening surge in inflation is due mostly to "base effects… and production bottlenecks or other supply constraints", which will not last.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

28 June 2021 Q2 Growth won't Hit Our Initial Hopes, but the Recovery is Strong

The 12% GDP growth we had hoped to see in the second quarter now looks unlikely; we've cut our estimate to an annualized rate of 9 1/2%

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

24 June 2021 No End in Sight to the Surge in Orders for Capital Goods

A solid increase in aircraft orders and a rebound in the auto component likely will flatter the headline May durable goods orders number today—we look for a 3.0% increase, close to the 2.8% consensus—but we also expect a further robust increase in the core too.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 June 2021 Brace for Rising Covid Cases as the Delta Variant Takes Hold

We have to talk about Covid again, unfortunately. The downward trend in U.S. cases appears to be over, for now, following a 94% drop from the January peak. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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Keywords for: U.S. Documents

U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence