Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
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- We now look for a 550K headline payroll print tomor- row, in the wake of the disappointing ADP report.
- The ISM manufacturing survey confirms that supply-chain pressures are easing, albeit slowly.
- Jobless claims likely rebounded strongly in Thanks- giving week as a huge seasonal quirk reversed.
- ADP's November employment number likely will be boosted by the fading drag from the Delta variant.
- Chair Powell has retired "transitory", and kicked open the door to faster tapering, Omicron permitting.
- The November ISM likely will signal a modest easing in supply pressures; auto sales up again?
- Most of the variation in GDP growth since Covid has been due to wild swings in domestic demand...
- ...But net foreign trade looks set to make a meaningful contribution in Q4, alongside strong consumption.
- The continued increase in core capital goods orders signals faster future productivity growth.
- The Omicron variant will soon reach the U.S., but its takeover will be slower than Delta's…
- …Assuming decent protection from vaccination and/or prior infection; that's not yet clear.
- If Omicron spreads quickly but causes less severe disease, it will not trigger a stall in the recovery
- Jobless claims look set to plunge to a new, though temporary, pandemic low.
- Downside risk for headline durable goods orders, but core capex orders are what matter.
- October's core PCE deflator likely rose by less than the core CPI, but further big gains are coming.
- Chair Powell's re-appointment and the impending new board appointments will keep the Fed dovish...
- ...But an immediate acceleration of the tapering pace in December can't be ruled out.
- Home prices continue to rocket as rising sales leave no room for inventory to recover.
- In one line: The re-rebound continues, and low inventory means prices are still soaring.
- Covid cases are rising in states with low vax rates, waning vax efficacy, and low prior infections...
- ...Colder weather likely is boosting infections in the northern half of the country; expect NE cases to soar.
- New treatment and vaccine protection against severe disease will keep hospitalizations and deaths down.
- Used vehicle auction prices are still rising, but the rate of increase has slowed; is the worst over?
- A year from now, and possibly much sooner, we ex- pect car prices to be in free-fall.
- Surging Philly Fed and Empire State surveys suggest that the strong manufacturing rebound continues.
- Core retail sales are rising at a solid pace; a strong holiday season is a decent bet...
- ...But a sustained rebound in spending on services is still the missing link in the recovery story.
- Mortgage demand continues to rise steadily; home sales and housing construction follow.
- If the Fed's transitory view is to be proved correct, wage growth has to slow, so participation has to rise.
- Productivity growth has to rise too, and global supply chain pressures have to fade.
- These are all reasonable bets, but nothing is certain, and inflation will rise much further in the near-term.
- October's leap in the core CPI will be followed by a run of further hefty increases...
- ...Core inflation is likely to blast through 6% early next year, posing a serious challenge to the Fed.
- Chair Powell wants to stick to "transitory", but he needs to see labor participation surging, and fast.
- The October core CPI likely rebounded after a run of benign readings, but the uncertainty is great...
- Used auto prices, airline fares, and rents all pose clear upside risk, but nothing is certain.
- The unexpected plunge in PPI new vehicles prices in October likely is a technicality rather than a real shift.
- Small businesses' sentiment has been hit hard by Delta; is a rebound now underway?
- The NFIB signals continued labor market tightness but suggests inflation will fall next year.
- Brace for upside risk in the October PPI; the September plunge in airline fares was a one-time event.
- Momentum is building in payrolls; the next few months should see 1M-plus gains.
- Substantially faster payroll growth requires a clear increase in participation; that's a decent bet.
- A rebalancing of labor demand and supply would reduce the upward pressure on wage growth.
- Chair Powell is sticking to "transitory", though it will take longer for inflation to fall than previously hoped.
- The Fed still is not talking about higher rates, but tapering could be accelerated if necessary.
- Productivity likely dropped sharply in Q3, but it will rebound in Q4 and the outlook is very favorable.
- The tapering announcement today is a done deal; what Chair Powell says about inflation matters more.
- Expect a defense of the transitory arguments, but with a warning of hefty near-term upside risk.
- Homebase data point to a third straight disappointing payroll print, thanks to the Delta Covid wave.
- The drop in Covid cases has stalled, thanks to a few western states; the downturn should resume soon.
- Manufacturing orders wobbling as supply chain pressures bite harder; no relief yet in sight.
- New auto sales might finally have hit bottom, or not; forecasts for October are all over the map.
- The Fed faces serious challenges to the "transitory" story over the next few months...
- ...On top of surging wages, the core CPI is set to surge, and economic growth is likely to rebound.
- With the Fed set to taper, just as issuance rebounds after the debt ceiling is fixed, expect yields to jump.