Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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energy output

28 July 2022 US Monitor Eight Weeks of Softer Data will Push the Fed to a Smaller September Hike

The Fed followed the script, but Chair Powell was careful to avoid making predictions for September.

With eight weeks of softer data to come before the next meeting, we think 50bp is a solid September bet. 

The economy likely shrank at a 0.5% rate in the second quarter, thanks entirely to a swing in inventories.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

22 July 2022 US Monitor The Peak Frenzy in Rental Markets is Over

CPI rents are accelerating, but not for much longer, given the sharp slowing in asking rents.

Rising supply of homes for sale will also release supply in rental markets; landlords’ margins will fall.

The Philly Fed likely has hit bottom, but the bigger story is the rapid improvement of supply constraints.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

18 July 2022 Consumption is Holding Up, and Real Incomes will Start to Rebound in July

Consumption likely rose at a 1.4% annualized rate in Q2; not bad, under the circumstances.

Non-auto manufacturing is sliding towards recession, but it is not representative of the whole economy.

The plunge in energy prices means that the July PPI likely will rise by only a couple tenths.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 July 2022 Gas Prices to Flatter June Retail Sales, but Core OK too

Headline retail sales in June likely flattered by higher gas prices, but we look for solid core numbers too...

Manufacturing output looks to be stalling; is the auto sector the exception as chip supply improves?

Core PPI inflation is now clearly trending downwards, but the real shift will come when margins start to fall.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

6 July 2022 GDP Growth is Likely to Snap Back in Q3, Thanks to Trade and Inventories

Net foreign trade and inventories depressed GDP growth in H1, but will reverse, at least in part, in H2.

The case for a hefty rebound in headline Q2 GDP is quite strong, though final demand likely will slow.

Expect weaker JOLTS job openings and ISM services today, but supply constraints probably eased again.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 July 2022 Q2 Set for the Second Straight Dip in GDP, but it's not a Recession

Downward revisions to prior data and soft May consumption signal a real risk of a small dip in Q2 GDP…

…Not every fall in GDP signals recession, especially when payrolls are still rising rapidly.

The June ISM manufacturing index likely fell, but by much less than the Caixin PMI seems to imply.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

28 June 2022 Q2 Rebound in Foreign Trade Likely to be Smaller than we Hoped

The first quarter’s massive surge in the trade deficit won’t be repeated in the second quarter…

…But the correction will be smaller than we hoped, so the 3.2pp hit to Q1 GDP will only partly reverse.

Consumer confidence likely fell sharply this month, responding to gas prices and the stock market drop.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

21 June 2022 How the Fed can Thread the Needle, Reducing Inflation with no Recession

A central bank which promises to hike until inflation falls usually would be signalling recession…

But the margin compression, slowing wage gains, and big cash balances make this time different…

…The Fed has a decent chance of avoiding recession and bringing inflation down quickly.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 June 2022 Housing Construction is Rolling Over, and it has Much Further to Fall

May’s plunge in housing starts overstates the collapse, but not by much, and worse is coming.

The Philly Fed index confirms that supply-chain pressures are easing rapidly.

Vehicle production has returned to the pre-Covid level; further gains will support rising auto sales.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 June 2022 The Fed will Hike Until Inflation is Clearly Falling, and that's too Much

A central bank promising to hike until inflation is clearly falling is effectively promising to overtighten…

…But the healthy state of the private sector’s finances mean that a recession should be averted.

The softness of May retail sales and downward revisions to April will hit Q2 GDP growth forecasts.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 June 2022 Margin Re-Compression is Key to Lower Inflation, Progress in the PPI

Margin re-compression, on the back of the inventory rebuild, is the key to falling inflation over the next year.

PPI "trade services" measures margins directly; they dipped in April and likely fell again in May.

Downside risk to the NFIB headline index today, but we already know that hiring plans rebounded.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 June 2022 No Relief as Energy, Food, Cars, and Rent Hide Better Core-Core CPI

The downturn in core inflation is set to stall over the summer, while the headline rate will hit new highs…

…But core-core prices are now rising less quickly, thanks to slowing wage gains.

The Fed will hike by 50bp this week and in July, markets permitting, but we expect 25bp in September.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

6 June 2022 Solid Payrolls, Rising Participation and Slower AHE = Happier Fed?

Payroll growth has slowed but is still strong, and is being accommodated by rising participation.

The moderation in wage growth looks increasingly real, and it will reduce sequential price pressures.

The next two CPI reports and June labor data are key; the Fed could yet pivot to 25bp in July.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

3 June 2022 Payroll Growth Appears to have Slowed, but it Remains Strong

The Homebase data and an array of surveys suggest that job growth has slowed; we look for 250K.

The softening in average hourly earnings growth looks real, given the surge in prime-age participation.

Google mobility data point to a clear rebound in the ISM services index, but that guarantees nothing.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 June 2022 Higher Oil Prices are Bad News for Most Manufacturers, but not All

Surging oil prices are bad news for many manufac- turers, but shale producers are responding positively.

Regional PMI and Fed surveys for May are mixed, making the ISM a tricky call; we expect a small gain.

May auto sales likely reversed their April jump, but rising vehicle output points to stronger sales ahead.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

27 May 2022 Consumption Jumped in April while Core PCE Inflation Fell; but How Far

Core PCE inflation fell on a year-over-year basis in April, but the monthly print is a tricky call.

Real consumption spending rebounded after a flat March, led by autos and discretionary services.

The goods trade deficit appears to have plunged in April; is the inventory rebuild coming to an end?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

25 May 2022 The Extent of the Housing Rollover Finally is Laid Bare

The startling plunge in April new home sales is no fluke; demand has cratered, and price gains will slow.

Core capital goods orders are still rising strongly, despite surging energy prices; can it last?

April durable goods orders likely were flattered by the aircraft and vehicle components.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

24 May 2022 New Home Sales are Set for a Steep Drop, Prices are Vulnerable too

New home sales likely dropped sharply in April, but the monthly data are very noisy and unreliable.

Prices have overshot as developers have exploited low existing home inventory, but they are now at risk.

Capex plans have softened, but spending in the oil sector is accelerating, and has a long way to go.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

23 May 2022 Surging Consumer Credit Signals Pressure on Only Some Households

Low-income households are under pressure from soaring gas and food prices...

...But aggregate household finances are in good shape, and activity indicators continue to strengthen.

Consumers are drawing down pandemic savings, but they have a very long way to go.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

20 May 2022 The Uptick in Claims is not Definitive, it Says Nothing about Hiring

The upturn in jobless claims is no reason to panic; consumer data are still strengthening.

Philly Fed capex plans have tanked, but other surveys are less weak; watch the hard orders data.

The housing rollover is gathering speed; housing- related retail is in for a very tough time.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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