Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

employees

4 Nov 2021 Powell Adamant Higher Rates are not Yet Part of the FOMC Conversation

  • Chair Powell is sticking to "transitory", though it will take longer for inflation to fall than previously hoped.
  • The Fed still is not talking about higher rates, but tapering could be accelerated if necessary.
  • Productivity likely dropped sharply in Q3, but it will rebound in Q4 and the outlook is very favorable.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

9 Sept 2021 Delta is Peaking; Real-Time Data to Start Rising Again by End-Month

The Covid Delta wave appears to have peaked; a steady decline in cases is a good bet.

Most states now appear to have immunity rates above 70%; that's enough to limit future waves.

The seasonals point to another drop in jobless claims today, but Delta is a wild card.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

8 Sept 2021 Job-Switching has Soared, the Wage Premium for Switching has not

  • The elevated quits rate shows that people are much more willing to switch jobs than usual...
  • ...But wage gains for job-switchers are in line with previous experience; no inflation threat here.
  • Chainstore sales held up surprisingly well in August; the flipside of falling spending on services?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

19 Aug 2021 The Hawks Want to Taper Very Soon, they will be Disappointed

  • FOMC splits and the Delta wave suggest the tapering announcement will be no sooner than November.
  • The trend in jobless claims seems still to be falling, as the run of seasonally-distorted numbers ends.
  • Downside risk for the Philly Fed today; the global manufacturing recovery is moderating.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

21 July 2021 WSJ Editorial Board Article Raises Blood Pressure; Best Avoided

The Wall Street Journal ran a nonsensical editorial piece yesterday on the subject of inflation.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 July 2021 Quits are Soaring as Power Shifts to Employees, Perhaps Temporarily

We have never taken much notice of the quits rate from the JOLTS report, on the grounds that it’s usually just a proxy for the unemployment rate, released with a lag and prone to odd jumps and dips which turn out not to be significant.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

3 June 2021 May ADP Payrolls Likely Constrained by the April Softness in Official Data

ADP hugely overstated the official payroll number in April, compounding the shock in markets from the 266K headline print, with private payrolls up only 218K.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

12 May 2021 An Array of Core CPI Components Look Set to Rise in April

It was easy for inflation doves to dismiss the 0.34% jump in the March core CPI as merely a correction, after three straight small increases, averaging just 0.06%.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

10 May 2021 April Payrolls Constrained by Lack of Supply, not Demand; Why

Let's start the post-mortem with what we know: The disappointing April payroll numbers were not depressed by a lack of labor demand.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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Keywords for: U.S. Documents

U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence