Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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durable goods Productivity

4 June 2021 ADP Likely Overstates May Payrolls, Homebase Data are Softer, Again

We still look for a 550K May headline payroll print today, with private payrolls up 500K, despite the 978K ADP reading yesterday.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)4th Jun 2021 00:20U.S.

3 June 2021 May ADP Payrolls Likely Constrained by the April Softness in Official Data

ADP hugely overstated the official payroll number in April, compounding the shock in markets from the 266K headline print, with private payrolls up only 218K.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)3rd Jun 2021 00:20U.S.

2 June 2021 Will Auto Sales Jump as Businesses Buy Again and Chip Shortages Ease

After two months of upside surprises, most auto industry publications expect today's May headline sales number to drop quite sharply, 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)2nd Jun 2021 00:20U.S.

28 May 2021 Core PCE Inflation is Headed for 3%- plus, but Probably not in April

Core PCE Inflation is Headed for 3%- plus, but Probably not in April

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)28th May 2021 00:20U.S.

24 May 2021 Real Shifts in Inflation Expectations Matter for Wages (Probably)

Real Shifts in Inflation Expectations Matter for Wages (Probably)

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)24th May 2021 00:30U.S.

17 May 2021 One Huge Core CPI won't Move the Fed, but it Surely has their Attention

One Huge Core CPI won't Move the Fed, but it Surely has their Attention

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)17th May 2021 00:30U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Jobless Claims 5 6 21; Productivity and Unit Labor Costs, Q1 2021

U.S. Jobless Claims 5 6 21, Productivity and Unit Labor Costs, Q1 2021

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)6th May 2021 15:56U.S.

30 Apr 2021 The Biden Agenda is Startlingly Ambitious, Achievability is Unclear

The Biden Agenda is Startlingly Ambitious, Achievability is Unclear

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)30th Apr 2021 00:20U.S.

21 Apr 2021 A Capital Stock Rebuild and Rising R-star is Still a Good Post-Covid Bet

A Capital Stock Rebuild and Rising R-star is Still a Good Post-Covid Bet

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)21st Apr 2021 00:20U.S.

19 Apr 2021 The Council of Economic Advisors Might be Right About Inflation, or...

The Council of Economic Advisors Might be Right About Inflation, or...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)19th Apr 2021 00:30U.S.

1 Apr 2021 ADP Confirms Payroll Momentum in March, but Bigger Gains Lie Ahead

ADP Confirms Payroll Momentum in March, but Bigger Gains Lie Ahead

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)1st Apr 2021 00:20U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Employment, January 2021

U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims 2 4 21, Productivity and Unit Labor Costs, Q4 2020

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)5th Feb 2021 14:34U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims 2 4 21/Productivity and Unit Labor Costs, Q4 2020

U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims 2 4 21, Productivity and Unit Labor Costs, Q4 2020

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)4th Feb 2021 16:01U.S.

14 Dec 2020 Soaring Margins Could Drive Inflation if Demand Explodes Post-Covid

The conventional way to model U.S. inflation a year or two ahead is to start with a projection for the rate of increase of unit labor costs, and then tweak it to account for...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)14th Dec 2020 00:20U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims and Productivity, Q3 2020

In one line: Claims have stalled; productivity/costs numbers are more noise than signal.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)5th Nov 2020 15:44U.S.

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