Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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durable goods

23 July 2021 Don't Worry About the Contraction in C&I Lending, this is not 2008 Redux

A defining feature of the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis was a sustained decline in the stock of bank lending to businesses.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)23rd Jul 2021 00:20U.S.

16 July 2021 Are Supply-Chain Pressures Starting to Ease, at the Margin

What should we make of the news that manufacturing production fell outright in June--just--but that the Empire State manufacturing index has rocketed to a record high?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)16th Jul 2021 00:20U.S.

8 July 2021 Does Trimmed Mean Inflation Signal Broader Trouble Ahead

The Dallas Fed last week published a short blog post--seehere--focused on the predictive power of their trimmed mean PCE inflation measure. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)8th Jul 2021 00:20U.S.

24 June 2021 No End in Sight to the Surge in Orders for Capital Goods

A solid increase in aircraft orders and a rebound in the auto component likely will flatter the headline May durable goods orders number today--we look for a 3.0% increase, close...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)24th Jun 2021 00:20U.S.

15 June 2021 Brace for Rising Covid Cases as the Delta Variant Takes Hold

We have to talk about Covid again, unfortunately. The downward trend in U.S. cases appears to be over, for now, following a 94% drop from the January peak. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)15th Jun 2021 00:30U.S.

4 June 2021 ADP Likely Overstates May Payrolls, Homebase Data are Softer, Again

We still look for a 550K May headline payroll print today, with private payrolls up 500K, despite the 978K ADP reading yesterday.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)4th Jun 2021 00:20U.S.

3 June 2021 May ADP Payrolls Likely Constrained by the April Softness in Official Data

ADP hugely overstated the official payroll number in April, compounding the shock in markets from the 266K headline print, with private payrolls up only 218K.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)3rd Jun 2021 00:20U.S.

2 June 2021 Will Auto Sales Jump as Businesses Buy Again and Chip Shortages Ease

After two months of upside surprises, most auto industry publications expect today's May headline sales number to drop quite sharply, 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)2nd Jun 2021 00:20U.S.

28 May 2021 Core PCE Inflation is Headed for 3%- plus, but Probably not in April

Core PCE Inflation is Headed for 3%- plus, but Probably not in April

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)28th May 2021 00:20U.S.

27 Apr 2021 Core Capital Goods Orders aren't Softening, it Just Looks that Way

Core Capital Goods Orders aren't Softening, it Just Looks that Way

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)27th Apr 2021 00:30U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Durable Goods Orders, March 2021

In one line: Headline hit by Boeing; core constrained by early Easter? Trends solid.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)26th Apr 2021 14:27U.S.

15 Apr 2021 Upside Risk for March Retail Sales as Stimulus Money Flows into Stores

Upside Risk for March Retail Sales as Stimulus Money Flows into Stores

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)15th Apr 2021 00:20U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Personal Income and Spending/Advance Goods Trade, February 2021

U.S. Personal Income and Spending, Advance Goods Trade, February 2021

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)26th Mar 2021 16:17U.S.

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