Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email, or contact your account rep

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core pce Monetary Policy

15 Sept 2021 The Surge is Over, but Don't Expect Every Core CPI to Look Like August's

  • Cross-currents in the core CPI suggest further volatility over the next few months…
  • …But a repeat of the spring surge is unlikely, even as hotel room rates and airline fares rebound, post-Delta.
  • The NFIB survey hints that small firms are responding to tight labor markets by increasing their capex

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

9 July 2021 Auto Sales are Falling and Prices are Rising, Supply is the Problem

The June auto sales numbers attracted very little attention last week, as the data came sandwiched between the ISM manufacturing survey and the payroll report. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

8 July 2021 Does Trimmed Mean Inflation Signal Broader Trouble Ahead

The Dallas Fed last week published a short blog post—seehere—focused on the predictive power of their trimmed mean PCE inflation measure. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

20 Apr 2021 First Quarter Growth Likely was About 6%, Expect Better in Q2

The wave of data over the past couple weeks means we can be reasonably confident now that first quarter GDP growth was around 6%.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

19 Apr 2021 The Council of Economic Advisors Might be Right About Inflation, or...

The Council of Economic Advisors waded into the post-Covid inflation debate last week—actually, it would be more accurate to say that they dipped a tentative toe into the water—with a blog post arguing that "the likeliest outlook over the next several months is for inflation to rise modestly... and to fade back to a lower pace thereafter as actual inflation begins to run more in line with longer- run expectations.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 Mar 2021 The Fed will Stick to its Guns Today, no Changes to QE, and no Taper Talk

The FOMC will revise up its growth forecasts today, in light of the sustained drop in Covid cases and hospitalizations, which is triggering a gradual reopening of the services sector, and the passage of the American Rescue Act, which will pump $1.9T into the economy.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Mar 2021 Deeply Embedded Low Inflation Psychology didn't End Well in the 60s

If you were managing a bond portfolio in the early 1960s, you wouldn't have given much thought to inflation risk. The average CPI inflation rate in the 1950s was 2.1%, and the first five years of the sixties saw inflation averaging just 1.2%. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

9 Mar 2021 The Labor Market for Small Businesses has Tightened Sharply

The NFIB's Small Business Jobs Report last week was lost in the noise of the drama in the Senate over the Covid relief bill—it's now back in the House and on course to be wrapped up this week—but the numbers were startling.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

23 February 2021 Chair Powell won't Give an Inch Today, too Soon for Taper Talk

Fed Chair Powell's semi-annual Monetary Policy Testimony today comes against a backdrop of rapidly rising long-term rates, with the 10-year Treasury up 45bp since the turn of the year, to 1.36%.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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