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The June auto sales numbers attracted very little attention last week, as the data came sandwiched between the ISM manufacturing survey and the payroll report.
The Dallas Fed last week published a short blog post—seehere—focused on the predictive power of their trimmed mean PCE inflation measure.
The wave of data over the past couple weeks means we can be reasonably confident now that first quarter GDP growth was around 6%.
The Council of Economic Advisors waded into the post-Covid inflation debate last week—actually, it would be more accurate to say that they dipped a tentative toe into the water—with a blog post arguing that "the likeliest outlook over the next several months is for inflation to rise modestly... and to fade back to a lower pace thereafter as actual inflation begins to run more in line with longer- run expectations.
The FOMC will revise up its growth forecasts today, in light of the sustained drop in Covid cases and hospitalizations, which is triggering a gradual reopening of the services sector, and the passage of the American Rescue Act, which will pump $1.9T into the economy.
If you were managing a bond portfolio in the early 1960s, you wouldn't have given much thought to inflation risk. The average CPI inflation rate in the 1950s was 2.1%, and the first five years of the sixties saw inflation averaging just 1.2%.
The NFIB's Small Business Jobs Report last week was lost in the noise of the drama in the Senate over the Covid relief bill—it's now back in the House and on course to be wrapped up this week—but the numbers were startling.
In one line: No surprises; still glum.
Fed Chair Powell's semi-annual Monetary Policy Testimony today comes against a backdrop of rapidly rising long-term rates, with the 10-year Treasury up 45bp since the turn of the year, to 1.36%.
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