Pantheon Macroeconomics

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chicago pmi

1 Mar 2021. Stocks don't Need to Keep Falling on the Back of Higher Yields

1 Mar 2021. Stocks don't Need to Keep Falling on the Back of Higher Yields

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)28th Feb 2021 19:30U.S.

21 Jan 2021 Jobless Claims Set to Drop; Last Week's Spike was a Seasonal Fluke

The spike in initial jobless claims last week was merely a correction after a run of below-trend readings, and we expect it to reverse over the next couple weeks. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)20th Jan 2021 19:20U.S.

4 Jan 2021 Covid Cases Surging Post-Holiday, but they won't Beyond Mid-month

While we were out, confirmed U.S. Covid-19 cases fell as Christmas approached—the seven-day average hit a three-week low on December 28—but they have since rebounded...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)24th Dec 2020 07:32U.S.

2 Dec 2020 The Bipartisan Covid Relief Bill is Welcome, but not Certain to Pass

The release yesterday of a $908B Covid relief bill, put together by a bipartisan group of senators, is good news.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)1st Dec 2020 19:20U.S.

1 Dec 2020 Help is Needed for the Unemployed, but the Employed Drive Growth

While we wait to see the extent to which Thanksgiving travel and family gatherings interrupted the emerging downshift in U.S. Covid cases, this week brings a ton of new data on...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)30th Nov 2020 19:20U.S.

US Datanote: Chicago PMI, November 2020

In one line: Even the strongest parts of the economy can't accelerate indefinitely.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)30th Nov 2020 10:17U.S.

US Datanote: Manufacturing PMI, China, November 2020

In one line: Don't get carried away by the three-year high.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)30th Nov 2020 06:28U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Chicago PMI, October 2020

In one line: Yet more evidence that the manufacturing rebound continues.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)30th Oct 2020 11:00U.S.

30 Oct 2020 What's Happening to Wages?

Before the Covid pandemic struck, the mix-adjusted measure of wages and salaries in the employment costs index was trending up by about 3.0% year-over-year.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)29th Oct 2020 20:10U.S.

28 Oct 2020 What's Really Happening to Home Prices--and What's Coming Next

The best way to answer the perennially vexed question of what's happening to home prices is to take a deep breath and cite a range, given that the four main measures of prices...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)27th Oct 2020 20:10U.S.

27 Oct 2020 Capex Orders and Shipments Still Rising, but Momentum is Easing

We're expecting to learn today that shipments of core capital goods jumped at a 33% annualized rate in the third quarter, a record increase, and more than reversing the 19.7%...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)26th Oct 2020 20:10U.S.

26 Oct 2020 The Manufacturing Recovery Can Continue as Goods Spending Rises

Back in the olden days, we argued that shifts in the global manufacturing cycle often originated in China, and then fed into the U.S. and European data with a lag of one-to-three...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)25th Oct 2020 20:10U.S.

US Datanote: ADP Employment, September and Chicago PMI, 2020

In one line: Payrolls still rising, but perhaps not for much longer.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)30th Sep 2020 12:06U.S.

1 Sep 2020 Decent Data Today won't Change the Deteriorating Q4 Outlook

Today brings a raft of data which mostly will look quite positive but will do nothing to assuage our fears over a sharp slowdown in growth in the fourth quarter.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)31st Aug 2020 20:10U.S.

US Datanote: Chicago PMI, August 2020

In one line: The manufacturing upturn appears to have peaked, for now.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)28th Aug 2020 11:05U.S.

27 July 2020 Economic Momentum has Stalled, GDP Could Easily Fall in August

With just five days of July remaining, it seems likely that the trends in most of the key near-real-time indicators will end the month close to the levels seen at the end of June.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)26th Jul 2020 20:20U.S.

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