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- The path of the military conflict in Ukraine is unknowable, but some economic consequences are clear…
- …The immediate hits to growth and inflation will be
bigger in Europe than in the U.S.
- In the long term, western defense spending has to
rise, massively; Europe has to pay for energy security
- Consumption jumped in January, but the increase likely was constrained by weakness in services.
- Downside risk for the core PCE deflator; look out for a hefty drop in airline fares.
- Severe weather and Omicron probably depressed January durable goods orders and new home sales.
- Consumers' confidence has dipped in recent months but it will rebound, and Q1 spending looks good.
- Inflation expectations are falling despite big increases in a wide array of infrequently-purchased items.
- Case-Shiller home price data will reinforce the picture of relentless increases, due to record-low inventory.
In one line: Driven up by cash buyers, but the next big move is to the downside
- Existing home sales probably fell in January, but this it not the start of the hit from higher rates.
- The Philly Fed suggests that manufacturing growth is slowing, and supply pressures are easing.
- The index of leading indicators is set to surprise massively to the downside today, thanks to Omicron.
- The FOMC is divided on the pace and timing of the coming policy tightening.
- The huge rebound in January retail sales will lift Q1 growth forecasts, but uncertainty still rules.
- Housing demand is softening, pushing down the leading components in the NAHB survey.
- The extreme uncertainty over developments in Ukraine make the macro implications unclear.
- A war would drive up energy prices, but Europe wouldn't freeze, given alternative supply sources.
- The permanent hit to relations with Russia would drive up spending on defense and energy security.
- The downshift in quarterly ECI wage growth reduces the risk that the Fed has to slam on the brakes...
- ...But a further softening is needed, on the back of rising participation, to make policymakers comfortable.
- The apparent leap in January auto sales, if sustained, reduces the risk of zero GDP growth in Q1.
- The Omicron hit likely will be visible in the retail sales data, but the core goods numbers should be OK.
- Industrial production probably was depressed by very warm December weather; expect a quick rebound.
- Car prices are beginning to moderate in the PPI, both at the manufacturer and dealer margin levels.
- The risk to December payrolls is decidedly to the up- side; we look for 850K, against the 444K consensus.
- A further rise in participation would be hugely significant, signalling an easing of excess labor demand.
- The ISM services survey suggests that supply-chain pressures are easing, but they remain intense.
- U.S. Covid cases are rocketing, but we are hopeful that pressure on hospitals will be contained.
- Omicron seems to hospitalize fewer people, and for much less time, than Delta.
- Existing home sales and prices probably jumped again in November; inventory still very tight.
- Faster productivity growth means higher real neutral rates, but can the private sector cope?
- Households and firms are in good shape, with low debt service ratios and transformed balance sheets.
- Markets don't believe the Fed's dotplot, but it's more likely that the markets will have to move up.
- The debt ceiling deal means that net Treasury issu- ance is set to rebound, just as the Fed steps back.
- Wholesalers are rapidly rebuilding their inventory, but they have a long way to go.
- Jobless claims will be seasonally afflicted until late January, but we look for a dip today.