Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

cash buyers

24 Feb 2022 Welcome (Back) to the Cold War

  • The path of the military conflict in Ukraine is unknowable, but some economic consequences are clear…
  • …The immediate hits to growth and inflation will be 
    bigger in Europe than in the U.S.
  • In the long term, western defense spending has to 
    rise, massively; Europe has to pay for energy security

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

24 Feb 2022 Downside Risks for Spending and the Core PCE Deflator in January

  • Consumption jumped in January, but the increase likely was constrained by weakness in services.
  • Downside risk for the core PCE deflator; look out for a hefty drop in airline fares.
  • Severe weather and Omicron probably depressed January durable goods orders and new home sales.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

22 Feb 2022 Consumers' Confidence is Low, but that won't Prevent Solid Q1 Spending

  • Consumers' confidence has dipped in recent months but it will rebound, and Q1 spending looks good.
  • Inflation expectations are falling despite big increases in a wide array of infrequently-purchased items.
  • Case-Shiller home price data will reinforce the picture of relentless increases, due to record-low inventory.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Existing Home Sales, January

In one line: Driven up by cash buyers, but the next big move is to the downside

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

18 Feb 2022 A Substantial Housing Slowdown is Just a Matter of Time

  • Existing home sales probably fell in January, but this it not the start of the hit from higher rates.
  • The Philly Fed suggests that manufacturing growth is slowing, and supply pressures are easing.
  • The index of leading indicators is set to surprise massively to the downside today, thanks to Omicron.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 Feb 2022 No Decisions Made at the January FOMC, Opinions Appear Split

  • The FOMC is divided on the pace and timing of the coming policy tightening.
  • The huge rebound in January retail sales will lift Q1 growth forecasts, but uncertainty still rules.
  • Housing demand is softening, pushing down the leading components in the NAHB survey.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Feb 2022 Russia will Come off Worst in the Long Run if Putin Invades Ukraine

  • The extreme uncertainty over developments in Ukraine make the macro implications unclear.
  • A war would drive up energy prices, but Europe wouldn't freeze, given alternative supply sources.
  • The permanent hit to relations with Russia would drive up spending on defense and energy security.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

31 Jan 2022 If Wage Gains are Slowing, the Fed has More Room for Maneuver

  • The downshift in quarterly ECI wage growth reduces the risk that the Fed has to slam on the brakes...
  • ...But a further softening is needed, on the back of rising participation, to make policymakers comfortable.
  • The apparent leap in January auto sales, if sustained, reduces the risk of zero GDP growth in Q1.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 Jan 2022 Mixed December Data Today Distorted by Omicron and Weather

  • The Omicron hit likely will be visible in the retail sales data, but the core goods numbers should be OK.
  • Industrial production probably was depressed by very warm December weather; expect a quick rebound.
  • Car prices are beginning to moderate in the PPI, both at the manufacturer and dealer margin levels.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 Jan 2022 December Payroll Risk is to the Upside, did Participation Rise Again

  • The risk to December payrolls is decidedly to the up- side; we look for 850K, against the 444K consensus.
  • A further rise in participation would be hugely significant, signalling an easing of excess labor demand.
  • The ISM services survey suggests that supply-chain pressures are easing, but they remain intense.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

22 Dec 2021 Omicron Cases Soaring, but Hospitalizations to be Contained?

  • U.S. Covid cases are rocketing, but we are hopeful that pressure on hospitals will be contained.
  • Omicron seems to hospitalize fewer people, and for much less time, than Delta.
  • Existing home sales and prices probably jumped again in November; inventory still very tight.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

20 Dec 2021 Can the Private Sector Cope with More than a Modest Fed Tightening?

  • Faster productivity growth means higher real neutral rates, but can the private sector cope?
  • Households and firms are in good shape, with low debt service ratios and transformed balance sheets.
  • Markets don't believe the Fed's dotplot, but it's more likely that the markets will have to move up.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

9 Dec 2021 Debt Ceiling Deal Means More Net Issuance, as the Fed Tapers Faster

  • The debt ceiling deal means that net Treasury issu- ance is set to rebound, just as the Fed steps back.
  • Wholesalers are rapidly rebuilding their inventory, but they have a long way to go.
  • Jobless claims will be seasonally afflicted until late January, but we look for a dip today.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence