Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

auto industry

12 May 2022 Behind the Noise, Core-Core Price Increases are Moderating

The April core CPI was lifted by a huge leap in airline fares; vehicle prices were disappointingly strong too…

…But the downshift in core-core price gains continued, and it has further to go as wage increases slow.

Inflation is likely to end the year higher than we previously thought, but the trend will be clearly falling.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

3 May 2022 Manufacturing is Set to Slow, but it is an Unreliable Guide to GDP Growth

The manufacturing sector is feeling the weight of China’s slowdown; the ISM is set to fall further.

Manufacturing is not GDP, but—like housing—it is has an outsized impact on perceptions of the economy.

The number of job openings has peaked, likely be- cause rapid hiring has reduced the Covid backlog.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

11 Mar 2022 Inflation will Start to Fall in Q2, but How Far, and How Fast

  • Headline and core inflation will peak in March; the key question now is the speed of the subsequent drop.
  • The Fed needs to see falling vehicle prices, slower wage gains and improving supply chains.
  • These are all reasonable bets, but they aren't certain in terms of both timing and extent.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

3 Mar 2022 The Fed is on Course to Start Tightening, but will be "Nimble"

  • Chair Powell sticks to the tightening story, while ac-knowledging uncertainty due to the Ukraine war.
  • The unwinding of the Omicron hit should mean lower claims and stronger ISM services today.
  • The auto sales rebound is stalling, but Q1 sales still on course to rise by more than 40%, annualized.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Advance Trade/Inventories, January

In one line: Import flood continues; auto inventory still rising, but less quickly.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

28 Feb 2022. U.S. Macro Implications of the Ukraine War Remain Modest

  • Key U.S. market metrics are now marginally better than immediately before Russia invaded Ukraine... 
  • ...Oil prices, particular, priced-in the invasion, so retail gas prices will now stabilize. 
  • First quarter GDP growth looks set to be lower than we hoped, thanks to continued auto supply problems. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 Feb 2022 No Decisions Made at the January FOMC, Opinions Appear Split

  • The FOMC is divided on the pace and timing of the coming policy tightening.
  • The huge rebound in January retail sales will lift Q1 growth forecasts, but uncertainty still rules.
  • Housing demand is softening, pushing down the leading components in the NAHB survey.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 Feb 2022 Expect a Big Jump in Headline January Retail Sales; Core is Wild

  • A gratifyingly huge leap in auto sales likely will flatter today's headline January retail sales...
  • The core will be mixed, but we hope falling restaurant sales were offset by gains elsewhere.
  • A weather-driven leap in utility output likely will hide soft January manufacturing data.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 Feb 2022 A Hit to the ISM from Omicron, but not a Knockout Blow

  • The ISM index likely dipped in January, but a big Omicron hit seems to have been averted.
  • The construction recovery has been driven entirely by housing, but the story is changing…
  • …Industrial and commercial construction is rebounding strongly, but housing activity is set to drop.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

31 Jan 2022 If Wage Gains are Slowing, the Fed has More Room for Maneuver

  • The downshift in quarterly ECI wage growth reduces the risk that the Fed has to slam on the brakes...
  • ...But a further softening is needed, on the back of rising participation, to make policymakers comfortable.
  • The apparent leap in January auto sales, if sustained, reduces the risk of zero GDP growth in Q1.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 Jan 2022 High Inflation will Force the First Hike, Thereafter, Wage Growth is Key

  • CPI inflation will peak in the next few months, but the speed of the coming downshift is unclear.
  • China's PPI inflation is now falling and has further to go; the U.S. will follow soon.
  • Seasonal adjustment issues likely pushed jobless claims up again last week, but the trend is falling.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

4 Jan 2022 While we were Out... Omicron Cases Rocketed, but not for Much Longer

  • Covid cases still rocketing, but they likely will peak over the next couple weeks.
  • The economic hit will be smaller and briefer than during the Delta wave, but it will be visible nonetheless.
  • The December ISM survey likely will show that supply-chain pressures are easing, gradually

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

10 Dec 2021 Upside Risks Abound for November Inflation, No Relief Until Q2

  • Threats to rents, vehicle prices, airline fares and hotel room rates mean upside core CPI risk today.
  • The next few months will see core inflation rise towards 7%; the Fed's pivot is a pre-emptive strike.
  • It's still reasonable to expect inflation to fall very sharply next year, but the Fed can't be certain.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 Dec 2021 Upside Risk for November ADP Employment as Delta Hit Fades

  • ADP's November employment number likely will be boosted by the fading drag from the Delta variant.
  • Chair Powell has retired "transitory", and kicked open the door to faster tapering, Omicron permitting.
  • The November ISM likely will signal a modest easing in supply pressures; auto sales up again?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 Nov 2021 Surging Retail Sales Signal a Solid Start to Fourth Quarter Spending

  • Core retail sales are rising at a solid pace; a strong holiday season is a decent bet...
  • ...But a sustained rebound in spending on services is still the missing link in the recovery story.
  • Mortgage demand continues to rise steadily; home sales and housing construction follow.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 Nov 2021 Homebase Jobs Look Soft for November, Official Data Likely Better

  • The initial Homebase jobs data for the November payroll survey week look disconcertingly soft...
  • ...But the data always are revised up, and the revisions are consistent; we look for 800K private jobs.
  • October retail sales and industrial production num- bers today likely will confirm a solid start to Q4.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Nov 2021 What has to Happen to Get the Fed off the Inflation Hook?

  • If the Fed's transitory view is to be proved correct, wage growth has to slow, so participation has to rise.
  • Productivity growth has to rise too, and global supply chain pressures have to fade.
  • These are all reasonable bets, but nothing is certain, and inflation will rise much further in the near-term.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

12 Nov 2021 The Worst is Yet to Come: Core CPI Inflation will Soon Flirt with 7%

  • October's leap in the core CPI will be followed by a run of further hefty increases...
  • ...Core inflation is likely to blast through 6% early next year, posing a serious challenge to the Fed.
  • Chair Powell wants to stick to "transitory", but he needs to see labor participation surging, and fast.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

10 Nov 2021 October's Core CPI is at the Mercy of Used Cars, Airline Fares, and Rents

  • The October core CPI likely rebounded after a run of benign readings, but the uncertainty is great...
  • Used auto prices, airline fares, and rents all pose clear upside risk, but nothing is certain.
  • The unexpected plunge in PPI new vehicles prices in October likely is a technicality rather than a real shift.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

3 Nov 2021 Tapering is Coming, but what will Chair Powell Say About Inflation

  • The tapering announcement today is a done deal; what Chair Powell says about inflation matters more.
  • Expect a defense of the transitory arguments, but with a warning of hefty near-term upside risk.
  • Homebase data point to a third straight disappointing payroll print, thanks to the Delta Covid wave.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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