Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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Trade Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist) Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)

10 Sept 2021 Core PPI Inflation is Still Rising, but Monthly Gains Look Set to Slow

  • Core PPI inflation likely hit a new high in August, but the month-to-month increases are set to slow.
  • Much of the recent surge has been due to widening margins, especially in autos; this can't last forever.
  • The drop in jobless claims reported yesterday is noise, not signal, and it says nothing about payrolls.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Personal Income, July 2021; Advance Goods Trade, July 2021

  • In one line: Consumption temporarily under pressure as stimulus hit fades and Delta strikes.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

30 July 2021 Brace for Another Outsized Jump in Employment Costs

Another outsized increase in the ECI measure of wages would be awkward…

…But the Fed will argue that increased labor supply in the fall will prevent inflationary wage gains.

Q2 GDP growth was depressed by a wild swing in inventories; expect a rebound in Q3.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

29 July 2021 Progress Made, but not "Sufficient Further Progress", Yet

Tapering is inching closer, but talk of rate hikes is de-ferred unless and until labor market signals flash red.

The economy likely expanded at an 8.0% rate in Q2, led by consumption and business investment.

Jobless claims look set to disappoint again today, and look for a big drop in pending home sales..

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

30 June 2021 Upside Risk for the June ADP, but it Likely will Overstate Official Payrolls

We see substantial upside risk to the June ADP employment reading today, but we think the data will overstate the official private payroll number, for a third straight month. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

10 May 2021 April Payrolls Constrained by Lack of Supply, not Demand; Why

Let's start the post-mortem with what we know: The disappointing April payroll numbers were not depressed by a lack of labor demand.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

3 May 2021 What's Driving ECI Wages, Technicalities, or Real Pressures

It's possible that the surge in wages reported in the first quarter employment costs index will prove benign.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

30 Apr 2021 The Biden Agenda is Startlingly Ambitious, Achievability is Unclear

President Biden's $1.8T American Families Plan, together with the $2.3T infrastructure plan, and the $1.9T Covid relief bill, amount to nothing less than attempt to push the United States towards a European-style social democratic model. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

29 Apr 2021 Too Soon for Taper Talk, Again, Despite the Improving Outlook

The FOMC made no policy changes yesterday and the statement was little different to the March note.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Advance Trade in Goods, March 2021

In one line: The rising deficit reflects the huge U.S. policy response to Covid.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

20 Apr 2021 First Quarter Growth Likely was About 6%, Expect Better in Q2

The wave of data over the past couple weeks means we can be reasonably confident now that first quarter GDP growth was around 6%.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Personal Income and Spending/Advance Goods Trade, February 2021

In one line: Weather and stimulus distortions abound, but keep an eye on healthcare inflation, especially hospitals.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

23 Mar 2021 Is the Stimulus Bill Driving up Manufacturing Sentiment

It's entirely reasonable to think that business owners and managers were happy to see the passage of the American Rescue Plan Act, signed into law by President Biden on March 11. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Personal income and spending/Goods trade, January 2021

In one line: Stimulus hits the income, spending and saving data; one-time spike lift the core deflator.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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