Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Industry Inflation Expectations

24 Jan 2022 A Headlong Rush to Balance Sheet Rundown is Risky, for Everyone

  • The enthusiasm among some FOMC members for a rapid balance sheet runoff is misplaced.
  • If the FOMC wants to tighten more aggressively, faster rate hikes are less risky and send a clearer signal.
  • We think the runoff will begin in the fall, slowly; market conditions will not allow the Fed to move quickly.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

21 Jan 2022 Housing Demand is Set to Weaken as Higher Mortgage Rates Bite

  • The housing story in the second half of last year, with demand rising, and inventory low, is about to change.
  • Higher mortgage rates will reduce the number of potential buyers, and sellers will have less power.
  • The surge in jobless claims last week likely reflects the Omicron hit; it will be short, but just how short?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

19 Jan 2022 Soaring Oil Prices will Lift Headline Inflation, and Slow the Core Decline

  • December's grim retail sales report likely will be fol- lowed by further weakness in January...
  • Spending has been hit, temporarily, by a one-two punch from early holiday shopping, then Omicron.
  • The Fed is dead set on starting to tighten soon, but the upcoming data should dampen Q2 expectations.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

18 Jan 2022 Omicron is Hurting, but the Pain Should Start to Ease in February

  • December's grim retail sales report likely will be followed by further weakness in January...
  • Spending has been hit, temporarily, by a one-two punch from early holiday shopping, then Omicron.
  • The Fed is dead set on starting to tighten soon, but the upcoming data should dampen Q2 expectations.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. PPI, December/Weekly Jobless Claims

In one line: Core PPI inflation has peaked; claims hit by seasonal problems.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 Jan 2022 High Inflation will Force the First Hike, Thereafter, Wage Growth is Key

  • CPI inflation will peak in the next few months, but the speed of the coming downshift is unclear.
  • China's PPI inflation is now falling and has further to go; the U.S. will follow soon.
  • Seasonal adjustment issues likely pushed jobless claims up again last week, but the trend is falling.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

12 Jan 2022 Upside Risks in the December Core CPI, Headline Rate to Peak

  • Upside risk to the December core CPI, mostly from vehicle prices, airline fares, and hotel room rates.
  • Headline inflation likely rose above 7%, but this should be the peak.
  • Small firms sentiment is yet to reflect the Omicron hit, or the weakening in the stock market.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

11 Jan 2022 Covid Cases Peaking and will Soon Fall, Real-Time Activity Data to Follow

  • Covid cases look to be peaking, but ICU occupancy looks set for new pandemic highs.
  • The situation will look much better a month from now, as cases drop and Paxlovid cuts hospitalizations.
  • As Covid finally recedes, people will start to spend their accumulated savings.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

10 Jan 2022 Unemployment at 3.9% Matters More to the Fed than Sluggish Payrolls

  • The relative softness in December payrolls is hard to explain, but the labor market is still tightening.
  • Sub-4% unemployment is enough to convince most FOMC members than an early rate hike is needed.
  • We expect the first hike in March, with an increasing chance of three further hikes this year.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 Jan 2022 December Payroll Risk is to the Upside, did Participation Rise Again

  • The risk to December payrolls is decidedly to the up- side; we look for 850K, against the 444K consensus.
  • A further rise in participation would be hugely significant, signalling an easing of excess labor demand.
  • The ISM services survey suggests that supply-chain pressures are easing, but they remain intense.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. FOMC Minutes, December

In one line: Inflation fears dominated the discussion, but uncertainties are great.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

6 Jan 2022 Homebase and ADP Point to an 850K Initial Print for December Payrolls

  • Our final December jobs forecast is 850K; we expect the initial print to be revised up up to about 1M.
  • Forecasting payrolls during Covid is a nightmare, but the risk to the 424K December consensus is clear.
  • We now expect the first Fed hike in March, with two further hikes later in the year, and a steeper curve.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

24 Dec 2021 While We're Out, Omicron Cases will Rocket, but don't Worry, Much

  • Omicron cases likely will double over the holidays, but what matters is hospitalizations...
  • ...A clear increase is inevitable, but pressure on hospi- tals will be less intense that in the January 2021 wave.
  • Don't worry about November's soft core capex orders and new home sales numbers; noise not signal.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

23 Dec 2021 Core PCE Inflation Rose Again in November, Peaking in February

  • Core PCE probably hit a 32-year high in November, but it has further to rise before peaking in February.
  • Core capital goods orders are rising, but higher inflation is eating into the gains in real terms.
  • Upside risk for November new home sales, given the sustained surge in mortgage applications.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

20 Dec 2021 Can the Private Sector Cope with More than a Modest Fed Tightening?

  • Faster productivity growth means higher real neutral rates, but can the private sector cope?
  • Households and firms are in good shape, with low debt service ratios and transformed balance sheets.
  • Markets don't believe the Fed's dotplot, but it's more likely that the markets will have to move up.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 Dec 2021 The Omicron Wave will Hit Activity Hard, but not for Long; we Hope

The U.K.'s exponential leap in Covid cases and plunge in services activity is coming to the U.S., soon.

We hope the Omicron wave will be brief, but it is cer- tain to be severe, at least in terms of cases.

The robust industrial recovery continues, with every chance of further increases in output in Q1.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 Dec 2021 Faster Tapering, and Faster Hikes

The Fed's tapering and rate hike plans assume only a modest hit from Omicron; we hope they're right.

Chair Powell emphasised the threat from rapid wage gains; all eyes on labor participation, and the Q4 ECI.

The abrupt slowing in core retail sales in November is no big deal; a correction was due after rapid gains.



Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Dec 2021 The FOMC is Set to Accelerate the Taper, and to Project Two 2022 Hikes

The Fed will announce faster tapering today, opening the door to a rate hike in the spring.

The dotplot likely will show two rate hikes in 2022, triggered by the run of upside inflation surprises.

Core retail sales likely undershot consensus in November, but the trend is still strong.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 Dec 2021 Brace for Higher Core PPI Inflation, but the Peak is not Far Off

Core PPI inflation has further to rise, but it should start to fall in January.

The details of the NFIB survey are more important than the headline index...

...Look out for strength in capex plans, and a modest rise in selling prices, lifted by gas prices.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 Dec 2021 Headline Inflation Close to Peaking; the Core will Rise Much Further

  • Headline inflation is unlikely to rise much further, but the core rate still some way to climb.
  • Faster rent inflation is now well-established, and upward pressure elsewhere is yet to peak.
  • A steep drop inflation from next spring remains a good bet, but the Fed needs insurance.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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