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Tapering is inching closer, but talk of rate hikes is de-ferred unless and until labor market signals flash red. The economy likely expanded at an 8.0% rate in Q2, led by...
Chair Powell will stick to his lines today, and will add that the Fed is closely watching the march of Delta. Most states appear to be short of the 85% immunity required to...
For most of the decade before the pandemic, core CPI inflation ran a few tenths higher than core PCE inflation, mostly because rents, which are twice as important in the core CPI,...
The Wall Street Journal ran a nonsensical editorial piece yesterday on the subject of inflation.
The strong June retail sales numbers don't prove anything, but they are consistent with the idea that people have sufficient resources, and sufficient inclination, to...
Chair Powell made it clear yesterday that the Fed's leadership is sticking to its view that the reopening surge in inflation is due mostly to "base effects... and production...
Fed Chair Powell will doubtless be quizzed in some detail today about the implications of yesterday's startling CPI numbers for June.
We're expecting the third straight outsized jump in the core CPI when the June report is released today.
We find ourselves at odds with a couple of ideas gaining currency among the commentariat, namely, that markets are becoming less worried about inflation risk, and that the rise in...
The June auto sales numbers attracted very little attention last week, as the data came sandwiched between the ISM manufacturing survey and the payroll report.
The Dallas Fed last week published a short blog post--seehere--focused on the predictive power of their trimmed mean PCE inflation measure.
We have never taken much notice of the quits rate from the JOLTS report, on the grounds that it's usually just a proxy for the unemployment rate, released with a lag and prone to...
Our June payroll forecast is 1,050K, based largely on the Homebase small business employment data, which were dead right in May and pretty close in April.
We're not sure what to make of the 692K increase in the ADP measure of private payrolls, reported yesterday.
Consumption is the biggest single component of GDP, accounting for 68% of the economy.
A solid increase in aircraft orders and a rebound in the auto component likely will flatter the headline May durable goods orders number today--we look for a 3.0% increase, close...
Question: What's the fastest known mechanism for getting oil out of the ground?
The early signs are that the June payroll numbers will be materially stronger than May's.
The FOMC statement yesterday changed only trivially from April, just noting that the Covid picture is improving, easing the pressure on the economy, and that inflation is no...
Since the late April FOMC meeting, policymakers have seen two huge core CPI prints, alongside copious evidence that surging labor demand has collided with constrained supply,...
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