US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor
- October’s core CPI probably rose 0.4%, but the risks are biased to the downside.
- Hotel room rates, health insurance and new vehicle prices all seem likely to have pushed up the core.
- Our medium-term optimism remains, but disinflation won’t proceed in a neat straight line every month.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Households’ debt service ratios have edged higher since the Fed starting raising rates, but remain low.
- Debt service costs will rise further, but are unlikely to trigger sudden cuts to discretionary spending.
- Consumers’ sentiment likely improved in November, and inflation expectations probably fell.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Our base case forecast is immaculate disinflation; no recession but inflation heading back to the target.
- The net risk, though, is of a steeper downturn as businesses react to margin pressure with big layoffs.
- In that case, inflation will fall faster and the Fed will cut aggressively, but credit and some stocks will suffer.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Inventories are noisy and can’t be forecast with confi- dence, but signs point to drag on Q4 GDP growth.
- Real personal incomes after tax fell outright in the third quarter, but will rebound in the fourth...
- ...Spending, though, likely will head in the opposite direction, we see few signs of an impending rollover.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Survey shows slightly fewer banks are still tightening lending standards…
- …But on one is easing lending standards, and tight credit will constrain growth for the foreseeable future.
- Consumer credit growth likely rebounded in September, but the trend is slowing.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Homebase suggests modest downside risk to Octo- ber payrolls, but margins of error are wide.
- Unemployment is creeping higher as labor force growth surges, but the monthly data are wild cards.
- The ISM services index is holding up, but is trending sideways, and medium-term risk is to the downside.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The Fed preserves optionality, but two rounds of softer jobs and CPI data should keep them on hold.
- Unit labor costs growth is slowing sharply, signalling low inflation once the Covid echoes fade.
- Unexpectedly weak ISM manufacturing signals a renewed slowdown and an inventory correction.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The Fed will stick to its position today that policy optionality is still required; inflation not yet beaten.
- ISM manufacturing has likely stalled; the modest uptick in the sector has run into the spike in rates.
- Auto sales probably rose marginally in October, but the overall trend is about flat.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The ECI is the Fed’s favored measure of labor cost pressures; expect more good news in the Q3 data...
- ...We see downside risk to the consensus, but other wages data don’t consistently signal ECI swings.
- Consumers’ confidence likely dipped this month, but lower gas prices should support a year-end uptick.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The strong headline Q3 GDP number hid a disconcerting, broad-based slowing in business capex.
- The big inventory contribution to Q3 growth likely will reverse; we expect zero GDP growth in Q4.
- The September core PCE inflation data should bring further good news, but the Fed wants to see more.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Unemployment is creeping up, despite strong payroll gains, thanks to rapid labor force growth...
- Rebounding immigration likely is the key driver, rather than rising participation.
- Wage growth has already slowed sharply; it will soften further if unemployment continues to increase.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Surging consumption and a spike in net foreign trade likely propelled Q3 GDP to 4.9% growth…
- …But consumption will slow in Q4, the trade gain won’t be repeated, and inventories will be a big drag.
- A massive Boeing order from Ryanair means upside risk for headline durable orders; core still sluggish?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Surging exports and a dip in imports mean that net trade will make a big contribution to Q3 GDP growth.
- Q4 will be different; imports are due to rebound and exports will be constrained by slow global growth.
- Netflix is raising prices sharply but it will have little impact on the CPI.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Consumption has surprised to the upside this year; the story is more than than just savings rundown.
- Spending also has been boosted by very rapid real income growth in H1, but the numbers have turned.
- Existing home sales reached a fresh cycle low in September, and will fall further in the fourth quarter.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Homebase signals only a 100K increase in private payrolls in October.
- Residential investment will boost Q3 GDP growth, following earlier gains in starts, but it won’t last.
- Used vehicle prices falling again at auction; the summer bump has reversed, despite the UAW strike.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Real consumption spending likely rose at a 4% annualized rate in Q3, as people ran down savings further.
- Manufacturing probably is past the trough, but the upturn so far has been extremely modest.
- Housing starts probably rebounded in September, but the trend is flattening as mortgage demand falls.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Headline retail sales likely were unchanged in Sep- tember, but the control measure probably fell.
- Consumers’ spending likely ended Q3 on a soft note, with worse to come in Q4.
- A strike-related hit to auto production is the key risk to September manufacturing output.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
