Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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core pce

8 Dec 2020 Small Business Sentiment Set to Drop, but Details are More Important

Small business owners--at least, those who are members of the NFIB and respond to its monthly survey--were delighted by the election of President Trump in November 2016.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)8th Dec 2020 00:20U.S.

25 Nov 2020 Yellen will be an Excellent Treasury Secretary, but the Role is Limited

The impending appointment of ex-Fed Chair Yellen as Treasury Secretary is to be welcomed--a safer pair of hands is hard to imagine--but it does not change our view that...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)25th Nov 2020 00:20U.S.

23 Nov 2020 Increased QE More Likely After the Treasury Kills Fed Lending Programs

The unilateral decision of Treasury Secretary Mnuchin to allow a slew of Fed emergency lending programs to close to new borrowers on December 31, despite Fed objections, increases...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)23rd Nov 2020 00:20U.S.

13 Nov 2020 Banks Threatened to Turn the Screws on Borrowers, but Haven't

The Fed's Senior Loan Officer Surveys in April and July were deeply alarming, signaling that banks were aggressively tightening lending standards for firms of all sizes.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)13th Nov 2020 00:20U.S.

12 Nov 2020 The 2021 Inflation Outlook is Very Uncertain

We remain resolutely open-minded about the medium-term inflation outlook, on the straightforward grounds that the post-Covid economy will bear little resemblance to any previous...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)12th Nov 2020 00:10U.S.

30 Oct 2020 What's Happening to Wages?

Before the Covid pandemic struck, the mix-adjusted measure of wages and salaries in the employment costs index was trending up by about 3.0% year-over-year.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)30th Oct 2020 00:10U.S.

28 Oct 2020 What's Really Happening to Home Prices--and What's Coming Next

The best way to answer the perennially vexed question of what's happening to home prices is to take a deep breath and cite a range, given that the four main measures of prices...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)28th Oct 2020 00:10U.S.

27 Oct 2020 Capex Orders and Shipments Still Rising, but Momentum is Easing

We're expecting to learn today that shipments of core capital goods jumped at a 33% annualized rate in the third quarter, a record increase, and more than reversing the 19.7%...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)27th Oct 2020 00:10U.S.

26 Oct 2020 The Manufacturing Recovery Can Continue as Goods Spending Rises

Back in the olden days, we argued that shifts in the global manufacturing cycle often originated in China, and then fed into the U.S. and European data with a lag of one-to-three...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)26th Oct 2020 00:10U.S.

16 Oct 2020 Upside Risk for September Sales, but the Q4 Outlook is Deteriorating

All the key measures of retail sales have returned to the trends in place before the Covid pandemic, thanks to the enhanced unemployment benefits paid to people who lost their...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)16th Oct 2020 00:20U.S.

14 Oct 2020 CPI Cross-Currents are Hard to Read, but Rent Slowdown is Key

The overarching theme in the September CPI numbers is that there is no overarching theme.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)14th Oct 2020 00:20U.S.

13 Oct 2020 Stimulus Foundering on the Strong Objections of Some GOP Senators

As we reach our deadline Monday afternoon, the Columbus Day long weekend has brought no progress on the fiscal front.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)13th Oct 2020 00:20U.S.

9 Oct 2020 Healthcare Services are Emerging as an Inflation Threat

Our comments on the inflation outlook over the last few months have focused mostly on the risk of continued mean-reversion in some of the components crushed by Covid, and the...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)9th Oct 2020 00:20U.S.

1 Oct 2020 September Payrolls Look a Bit Better After ADP, October Seems Weak

We're happy that ADP beat our forecast yesterday-- an extra 250K jobs doesn't change the world, but it's better than the opposite--and we're lifting our...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)1st Oct 2020 00:20U.S.

17 Sept 2020 The Fed Adopts Outcome-Based Guidance, Raising the Rate Hike Bar

The Fed yesterday formally adopted outcome-based forward guidance, setting out the conditions under which rates will rise: "The Committee... expects it will be appropriate to...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)17th Sep 2020 00:10U.S.

16 Sept 2020 The Fed will Emphasize its Pursuit of Maximum Employment Today

It's not clear if the first FOMC meeting since the release of the Fed's new Monetary Policy Strategy will bring any real shift in policy, though we think it unlikely that...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)16th Sep 2020 00:20U.S.

14 Sept 2020 Core Inflation will Rise Further, Core PCE to hit the Target by Year-End?

The 0.4% August core CPI print was close to our expectations, and it likely will look much the same in September and October, driven by the same forces.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)14th Sep 2020 00:20U.S.

10 Sept 2020 Initial Claims are Falling, but the Bigger Picture is Still Disconcerting

We're expecting to see another dip in initial claims for regular state unemployment benefits today, to about 850K, but that's only part of the story.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)10th Sep 2020 00:10U.S.

9 Sept 2020 Rebounding Home Prices Likely will Push CPI Rent Inflation Back up

The remarkable surge in both new and existing home sales in recent months already has pushed inventory down and prices up.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)9th Sep 2020 00:20U.S.

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