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Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
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Small business owners--at least, those who are members of the NFIB and respond to its monthly survey--were delighted by the election of President Trump in November 2016.
8th Dec 2020 00:20U.S.
The impending appointment of ex-Fed Chair Yellen as Treasury Secretary is to be welcomed--a safer pair of hands is hard to imagine--but it does not change our view that...
25th Nov 2020 00:20U.S.
The unilateral decision of Treasury Secretary Mnuchin to allow a slew of Fed emergency lending programs to close to new borrowers on December 31, despite Fed objections, increases...
23rd Nov 2020 00:20U.S.
The Fed's Senior Loan Officer Surveys in April and July were deeply alarming, signaling that banks were aggressively tightening lending standards for firms of all sizes.
13th Nov 2020 00:20U.S.
We remain resolutely open-minded about the medium-term inflation outlook, on the straightforward grounds that the post-Covid economy will bear little resemblance to any previous...
12th Nov 2020 00:10U.S.
Before the Covid pandemic struck, the mix-adjusted measure of wages and salaries in the employment costs index was trending up by about 3.0% year-over-year.
30th Oct 2020 00:10U.S.
The best way to answer the perennially vexed question of what's happening to home prices is to take a deep breath and cite a range, given that the four main measures of prices...
28th Oct 2020 00:10U.S.
We're expecting to learn today that shipments of core capital goods jumped at a 33% annualized rate in the third quarter, a record increase, and more than reversing the 19.7%...
27th Oct 2020 00:10U.S.
Back in the olden days, we argued that shifts in the global manufacturing cycle often originated in China, and then fed into the U.S. and European data with a lag of one-to-three...
26th Oct 2020 00:10U.S.
All the key measures of retail sales have returned to the trends in place before the Covid pandemic, thanks to the enhanced unemployment benefits paid to people who lost their...
16th Oct 2020 00:20U.S.
The overarching theme in the September CPI numbers is that there is no overarching theme.
14th Oct 2020 00:20U.S.
As we reach our deadline Monday afternoon, the Columbus Day long weekend has brought no progress on the fiscal front.
13th Oct 2020 00:20U.S.
Our comments on the inflation outlook over the last few months have focused mostly on the risk of continued mean-reversion in some of the components crushed by Covid, and the...
9th Oct 2020 00:20U.S.
We're happy that ADP beat our forecast yesterday-- an extra 250K jobs doesn't change the world, but it's better than the opposite--and we're lifting our...
1st Oct 2020 00:20U.S.
The Fed yesterday formally adopted outcome-based forward guidance, setting out the conditions under which rates will rise: "The Committee... expects it will be appropriate to...
17th Sep 2020 00:10U.S.
It's not clear if the first FOMC meeting since the release of the Fed's new Monetary Policy Strategy will bring any real shift in policy, though we think it unlikely that...
16th Sep 2020 00:20U.S.
The 0.4% August core CPI print was close to our expectations, and it likely will look much the same in September and October, driven by the same forces.
14th Sep 2020 00:20U.S.
We're expecting to see another dip in initial claims for regular state unemployment benefits today, to about 850K, but that's only part of the story.
10th Sep 2020 00:10U.S.
The remarkable surge in both new and existing home sales in recent months already has pushed inventory down and prices up.
9th Sep 2020 00:20U.S.
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