Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

core pce

15 June 2021 Brace for Rising Covid Cases as the Delta Variant Takes Hold

We have to talk about Covid again, unfortunately. The downward trend in U.S. cases appears to be over, for now, following a 94% drop from the January peak. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)15th Jun 2021 00:30U.S.

14 June 2021 Inflation is Unpredictable; Be Open-Minded

First, an apology for breaking our two-page rule; we have a lot of ground to cover today. So, to business. Tapering is going to happen over the next few months; the only...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)14th Jun 2021 00:30U.S.

11 June 2021 Core Inflation has Further to Rise, the Fed Needs Labor Supply to Rebound

Most of the action in the May CPI was in the Covid- sensitive components, again. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)11th Jun 2021 00:20U.S.

9 June 2021 Upside Risk for the May Core CPI, from the Covid-Sensitive Sectors

The May CPI is released tomorrow, but interest in the numbers is so high that we want to set out our forecast today, ahead of the rush.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)9th Jun 2021 00:20U.S.

8 June 2021 Fundamentals, not Surveys, will Drive the Fed, but the Surveys are Startling

In 2015, key labor market indicators from the NFIB small business survey returned to levels last seen at the peak of the cycle in 2007, and unemployment hit the Fed's...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)8th Jun 2021 00:30U.S.

7 June 2021 May Payrolls Constrained Again by Supply; Wages Accelerating, for now

The May employment report did not resolve any of the key labor market issues keeping the Fed awake at night.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)7th Jun 2021 00:30U.S.

3 June 2021 May ADP Payrolls Likely Constrained by the April Softness in Official Data

ADP hugely overstated the official payroll number in April, compounding the shock in markets from the 266K headline print, with private payrolls up only 218K.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)3rd Jun 2021 00:20U.S.

1 June 2021 The Fed won't Rush to Judgment on the Post-Covid Labor Market

Let's try to put ourselves into the shoes of the FOMC, as the economy builds momentum on the back of the reopening. It is now abundantly clear from hard data, shown in our first...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)1st Jun 2021 00:30U.S.

28 May 2021 Core PCE Inflation is Headed for 3%- plus, but Probably not in April

Core PCE Inflation is Headed for 3%- plus, but Probably not in April

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)28th May 2021 00:20U.S.

24 May 2021 Real Shifts in Inflation Expectations Matter for Wages (Probably)

Real Shifts in Inflation Expectations Matter for Wages (Probably)

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)24th May 2021 00:30U.S.

17 May 2021 One Huge Core CPI won't Move the Fed, but it Surely has their Attention

One Huge Core CPI won't Move the Fed, but it Surely has their Attention

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)17th May 2021 00:30U.S.

14 May 2021 Noise Likely to Outweight the Signal in April's Retail Sales and IP Data

Noise Likely to Outweight the Signal in April's Retail Sales and IP Data

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)14th May 2021 00:20U.S.

4 May 2021 Manufacturing Growth has Peaked, for now; Inflation Pressure has not

Manufacturing Growth has Peaked, for now; Inflation Pressure has not

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)4th May 2021 00:30U.S.

27 Apr 2021 Core Capital Goods Orders aren't Softening, it Just Looks that Way

Core Capital Goods Orders aren't Softening, it Just Looks that Way

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)27th Apr 2021 00:30U.S.

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