Pantheon Macroeconomics

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7th Jun 2022 18:00U.K., Daily Monitor

The fall in May’s composite PMI to a 15-month low is a clear sign that growth is faltering as real incomes drop.

Retail and car sales also have been weak; we expect a quarter-over-quarter drop in GDP in Q2 of about 0.5%.

May’s PMI makes it more likely the MPC will hike by just 25bp this month; markets' expectations are too high.

car sales composite pmi cpi cpi inflation employment employment growth energy gdp growth government government spending June labour labour demand labour market May mpc October pmi public sector q2 real incomes retail sales sales values smmt surveys unemployment unemployment rate

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Keywords for: Signs of a Slowdown will Restrain the MPC to a 25bp Hike Next Week

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